Action alert — March 2026: Martin Lewis warned on 3 March 2026 that households on the price cap should "urgently" consider fixing. Many cheap fixed deals have since been pulled or repriced higher as suppliers respond to wholesale price spikes. If you're considering fixing, compare deals carefully — the window for cheap fixes may be narrowing. See our fix vs variable verdict below.
April–June 2026 cap
£1,641
Confirmed by Ofgem · ↓£117 vs Jan
July forecast (Cornwall Insight)
£1,972
↑£331 from April · as of 19 Mar 2026
July forecast (EDF)
£1,937
↑£296 from April · updated 17 Mar 2026
July forecast (E.ON Next)
£1,955
↑£314 from April · as of 23 Mar 2026
Ofgem announcement date
27 May
July–Sept cap confirmed by this date
Electricity unit rate (Apr)
24.67p
per kWh · Direct Debit · national avg
What is the energy price cap and who does it affect?
The energy price cap is the maximum rate Ofgem allows energy suppliers to charge per unit of gas and electricity for customers on standard variable tariffs (SVTs) — the default tariff you're on if you haven't chosen a fixed deal. It also caps the daily standing charge. Roughly 33 million UK households are currently on SVTs and are directly affected by every quarterly cap change.
The cap does not limit your total bill. If you use more energy than the Ofgem "typical" household (2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas per year), you will pay proportionally more. The £1,641 figure is simply what the average household would pay at average consumption.
Not on the price cap? If you're on a fixed tariff, an EV tariff, time-of-use tariff (like Octopus Agile), or any specialist deal, the price cap does not directly affect your rates. Your contract terms apply until your deal ends.
April 2026 price cap — confirmed rates (1 April to 30 June 2026)
Ofgem confirmed the Q2 2026 cap on 25 February 2026. Bills fell by £117 — or 6.6% — largely because the government scrapped the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) levy and moved green levies to general taxation, saving a typical household around £150 per year from April.
Electricity
24.67p/kWh
Unit rate · national average · Direct Debit
Standing charge: 57.21p/day
Gas
5.74p/kWh
Unit rate · national average · Direct Debit
Standing charge: 29.09p/day
Did your bill fall? Most households on SVTs saw unit rates drop from 1 April. Customers on fixed tariffs also benefited — suppliers passed on the government levy cuts to fixed deal customers automatically. Your direct debit may take a billing cycle to reflect the new lower rate.
Energy price cap history — 2025 to 2026
Jan–Mar 2026
£1,758
Small increase of 28p/month vs Q4 2025. Iran conflict not yet started.
Apr–Jun 2026
£1,641
↓£117. Government scraps ECO levy and moves green levies to general taxation. Biggest fall since 2023.
Jul–Sep 2026
~£1,955
⚠ Forecast only — not yet confirmed. Ofgem announces by 27 May 2026. Driven by Iran conflict wholesale spike.
Oct–Dec 2026
~£2,047
⚠ Very early forecast (EDF, Mar 2026). Highly uncertain — treat with caution.
July 2026 price cap forecasts — what every major analyst predicts
The July 2026 cap assessment period runs from 18 February 2025 to 17 May 2026. Because this period has only recently begun, all forecasts below are based on current wholesale forward market prices and will change as the assessment period progresses and as the Middle East situation evolves.
Cornwall Insight uses the Ofgem cap methodology applied to current wholesale market forward prices. Their March 2026 forecast of £1,972.53 represents a rise of approximately £331 from the April cap — one of the largest quarterly increases in recent years outside the 2022 energy crisis. Cornwall Insight is regarded as one of the most reliable forecasters, having been consistently close to announced cap levels in past quarters.
↑ £331 from April 2026 cap (£1,641) · +20.2%
EDF uses the same Ofgem methodology with their own view of non-wholesale costs. Their 17 March forecast of £1,937 is updated weekly. EDF notes that forecasts from July 2026 onwards "have continued to rise week-on-week, again driven by increases in wholesale prices arising from ongoing strikes in Iran and the Middle East." MoneySavingExpert uses EDF's forecast as its primary reference due to the weekly update frequency and public availability.
↑ £296 from April 2026 cap (£1,641) · +18.1%
E.ON's forecast of £1,955 for July–September 2026 is based on dual-fuel customers paying by Direct Debit with typical consumption (2,700 kWh electricity, 11,500 kWh gas). E.ON notes their prediction "will change based on the changes in the cost of wholesale energy for future periods" and is a guide to the trajectory rather than a guaranteed figure.
↑ £314 from April 2026 cap (£1,641) · +19.1%
The confirmed current cap. Bills fell from £1,758 in January to £1,641 in April — driven primarily by the government scrapping the ECO levy and moving green levies to general taxation (saving ~£150), partially offset by increased network costs (RIIO-3 framework investment). This is the baseline from which July's predicted rise of £300+ will be measured.
↓ £117 from January 2026 cap (£1,758) · -6.6% · Confirmed by Ofgem
Why is the July 2026 cap predicted to rise so sharply?
The price cap forecast surge has one primary cause: the conflict in the Middle East that escalated sharply from late February 2026.
US and Israeli strikes on Iran from 28 February 2026 effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical energy shipping route, through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply normally passes. Iran's closure of the strait, combined with damage to major LNG facilities in Qatar and the UAE, caused European wholesale gas prices to surge at their fastest pace since the 2022 Ukraine war. QatarEnergy halted LNG production at its two main facilities on 2 March.
Wholesale gas is the primary driver of UK energy prices — including electricity, because the grid still relies on gas-fired power stations to meet demand. The July cap is set using average wholesale prices from the assessment period (February to May 2026), meaning prices already locked into the forward market before any easing of the conflict will be reflected in the final cap announcement.
Important caveat: All July 2026 forecasts are based on current wholesale forward market prices as of mid-to-late March 2026. If the Middle East situation stabilises before 17 May 2026 (the end of the assessment period), forecasts could fall. Conversely, further escalation could push them higher. These figures should be treated as a directional guide, not a guaranteed outcome.
All forecasts compared — one table
| Forecaster |
July 2026 prediction |
Change vs April |
% change |
Last updated |
| Cornwall Insight |
£1,972 |
↑ £331 |
+20.2% |
19 Mar 2026 |
| E.ON Next |
£1,955 |
↑ £314 |
+19.1% |
23 Mar 2026 |
| EDF Energy |
£1,937 |
↑ £296 |
+18.1% |
17 Mar 2026 |
| Analyst consensus range |
£1,930–£1,975 |
↑ ~£290–£330 |
+18–20% |
Mar 2026 |
| April–June 2026 (confirmed) |
£1,641 |
↓ £117 vs Jan |
-6.6% |
Ofgem 25 Feb 2026 |
📋 July 2026 update — awaiting Ofgem announcement
July 2026 confirmed cap — to be updated 27 May 2026
Ofgem will announce the confirmed July–September 2026 energy price cap by 27 May 2026. This section will be updated immediately with the confirmed figures the moment Ofgem publishes. Bookmark this page or check back after 27 May.
Confirmed July cap (£/year): To be announced by Ofgem — 27 May 2026
Electricity unit rate (p/kWh): To be confirmed
Gas unit rate (p/kWh): To be confirmed
Electricity standing charge (p/day): To be confirmed
Gas standing charge (p/day): To be confirmed
Change vs April cap (£1,641): To be confirmed
Should you fix your energy tariff before July 2026?
This is the question every household on a standard variable tariff is asking right now. Here is the honest position as of late March 2026.
The case for fixing: If Cornwall Insight's forecast of £1,972 is correct, staying on the price cap through July and October would mean paying significantly more than if you fixed now — even at the higher current fixed prices. Martin Lewis's rule of thumb as of 24 March 2026 is that any fix priced up to 11% above the January 2026 cap (£1,758) — i.e. up to approximately £1,952 annually — is likely to save money over a 12-month horizon based on current forecasts. Fixes priced above that level are unlikely to save money on average.
The case for staying on the cap: Many cheap fixed deals were pulled from the market in early March when the Iran conflict began. Remaining fixed deals are now priced higher than before. If the conflict de-escalates before the assessment period closes on 17 May 2026, wholesale prices could fall back, cheaper fixed deals may return, and the July cap may come in lower than currently forecast. Octopus notes that customers who stayed on their tracker tariff through past crises often came out better over a full year.
Kaeltripton verdict — March 2026
▶
High risk-aversion (fixed bills matter most): If you cannot absorb a potential £330/year rise in July, fixing now at a deal within 11% of the January cap offers predictability. Check comparison sites for the latest deals — the market is moving fast and good deals appear and disappear within days.
▶
Lower risk-aversion (willing to gamble on conflict easing): Stay on the price cap for now. Bills are protected at £1,641 until 30 June regardless of what happens in the wholesale market. If the situation in the Middle East improves, cheaper fixes may reappear and a July cap lower than forecast remains possible. Revisit in late April when the assessment period is more advanced.
▶
Already on a fixed tariff: Do nothing. Your contract rates are locked. You also benefit from the April government levy cuts automatically — your supplier will pass these on.
What you should do right now — five actions
- Check which tariff you're on. If you haven't chosen a deal or your last fix ended without action, you're on the price cap. Log into your supplier's account to confirm.
- Compare fixed deals carefully. Use a comparison site (Uswitch, MoneySuperMarket) but check the unit rate — not just the annual estimate — against current cap rates. Exit fees vary significantly between deals.
- Don't panic-fix at any price. A fixed deal that's more than 11–12% above the January 2026 cap (approximately £1,960+) is unlikely to save money based on current forecasts. Overpaying for a fix because of fear is a real risk.
- Diarise 27 May 2026. That's when Ofgem publishes the confirmed July cap. Many decisions can wait until then — you'll have until 1 July before any new rates apply.
- Reduce usage now. Whatever happens to the cap, your bill depends on how much you use. Smart meters, insulation checks, and off-peak appliance use reduce the impact of any price rise.
Frequently asked questions
What is the energy price cap for July 2026?
The July 2026 energy price cap has not yet been officially announced — Ofgem will publish the confirmed figure by 27 May 2026. Current forecasts put it at approximately £1,930–£1,975 for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. Cornwall Insight forecasts £1,972, EDF £1,937, and E.ON £1,955 — all around £300–£330 higher than the April 2026 cap of £1,641. The surge is driven by Middle East conflict pushing wholesale gas prices sharply higher. This page will be updated the moment Ofgem confirms the figure.
What is the current energy price cap in April 2026?
The confirmed energy price cap from 1 April to 30 June 2026 is £1,641 per year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. This is a fall of £117 (6.6%) from the January 2026 cap of £1,758. The electricity unit rate is 24.67p/kWh with a standing charge of 57.21p/day. Gas is 5.74p/kWh with a standing charge of 29.09p/day. These are national averages for England, Scotland and Wales.
Why is the July 2026 energy price cap predicted to rise so much?
The primary driver is the Middle East conflict that escalated from late February 2026. US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off around 20% of global oil and gas supply. Major LNG facilities in Qatar and the UAE were also disrupted. European wholesale gas prices surged at their fastest pace since the 2022 Ukraine war, and because the July cap is calculated using wholesale prices from the ongoing assessment period (February to May 2026), the spike feeds directly into Ofgem's calculation.
Should I fix my energy tariff before July 2026?
It depends on your attitude to risk. Martin Lewis's rule of thumb as of late March 2026 is that a fix priced up to 11% above the January 2026 cap (around £1,952/year) is likely to save money over 12 months based on current forecasts. If you want bill certainty and can find a deal at that price or lower, fixing has merit. However, many cheap fixed deals have already been pulled. If you're willing to gamble on the Middle East situation easing before the May assessment period closes, staying on the cap and waiting may be the better call.
When will Ofgem announce the July 2026 energy price cap?
Ofgem will announce the confirmed July–September 2026 energy price cap by 27 May 2026. The assessment period for the July cap runs from 18 February 2025 to 17 May 2026. This page will be updated with the confirmed figure as soon as Ofgem publishes it. You can also check Ofgem's website directly at ofgem.gov.uk.
Who is covered by the energy price cap?
The energy price cap applies to UK households on standard variable tariffs (SVTs) — the default tariff if you have not actively chosen a fixed or specialist deal, or your previous deal ended. Approximately 33 million UK households are on SVTs and are directly affected by quarterly cap changes. If you are already on a fixed tariff, EV tariff, time-of-use tariff, or any specialist deal, the cap does not change your rates — your contract terms apply until your deal ends.
What are the unit rates under the April 2026 energy price cap?
Under the April to June 2026 cap, the average electricity unit rate is 24.67p per kWh with a standing charge of 57.21p per day. Gas is 5.74p per kWh with a standing charge of 29.09p per day. These are national averages for England, Scotland and Wales for Direct Debit customers. Rates vary by region and payment method — prepayment and quarterly billing customers pay different rates. Check your supplier's website for your specific regional rates.
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