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The current Ofgem energy price cap is set at £1,641 for April to June 2026 — a welcome £117 fall from the £1,758 January cap, driven by the government scrapping the Energy Company Obligation levy and moving green levies to general taxation. That relief is likely to be short-lived. Every major analyst now forecasts a significant rise in July, with the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption driving wholesale gas prices to levels not seen since 2022.
Verdict — April 2026Current cap (April–June 2026): £1,641/year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct DebitJuly 2026 forecast range: £1,861–£1,972 — a rise of £220–£331Ofgem confirms the July cap by 27 May 2026Cause: Iran war escalation from 28 February 2026 closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting ~20% of global oil and gas supplyFix vs variable: a one-year fix at £1,872 or less could save money vs staying on the cap — but only if wholesale prices stay elevatedThe cap limits the unit rate charged, not your total bill — actual costs depend on your consumption
What analysts forecast for July 2026
Ofgem does not issue its own predictions. Instead, independent analysts apply Ofgem's official methodology to wholesale market data. Their July 2026 forecasts as of mid-April 2026:
| Analyst | July 2026 forecast | Change from April | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cornwall Insight | £1,861 | +£220 (+13.4%) | 9 April 2026 |
| E.ON Next | £1,868 | +£227 (+13.8%) | 13 April 2026 |
| EDF Energy | £1,937 | +£296 (+18.0%) | 17 March 2026 |
| Kaeltripton range | £1,861–£1,972 | +£220–£331 | 18 April 2026 |
Cornwall Insight revised its forecast down from £1,973 earlier in April following a partial steadying of wholesale markets after signals of a potential ceasefire. EDF, at £1,937, remains the highest of the major forecasters. E.ON, at £1,868, is the lowest. All three agree the direction is up.
Why prices are rising: the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz
Before the conflict escalated on 28 February 2026, Cornwall Insight had forecast the July cap at £1,645 — broadly flat with April. US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply normally passes. QatarEnergy halted LNG production at its two main facilities on 2 March 2026. European wholesale gas prices surged at their fastest pace since the 2022 Ukraine war.
Ofgem calculates the July cap using average wholesale prices from 18 February to 17 May 2026. The observation window is already more than half complete, meaning a significant portion of the increase is already locked in regardless of what markets do now.
What the April 2026 cap charges per unit
Current rates from 1 April 2026 for a typical household paying by Direct Debit (England, Scotland and Wales national averages):
| Fuel | Unit rate (p/kWh) | Standing charge (p/day) |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity | ~24.5p | ~61p |
| Gas | ~6.2p | ~31p |
What three household sizes actually pay
| Household size | Annual gas (kWh) | Annual electricity (kWh) | Estimated annual bill |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-bed flat / single occupant | 7,500 | 1,800 | ~£1,100 |
| 2-3 bed / typical household | 11,500 | 2,700 | £1,641 |
| 4+ bed / high usage | 17,000 | 4,200 | ~£2,400 |
Fix vs stay on the cap — the decision right now
EDF has calculated that a one-year fixed tariff costing £1,872 or less annually could save money compared to staying on the variable cap for the next 12 months. Whether that proves correct depends on whether Middle East tensions ease before the observation windows for the October and January caps close.
- Fix if: you want certainty and believe wholesale prices will stay elevated. Many cheap fixed deals have been pulled or repriced since early March.
- Stay on cap if: you believe a ceasefire or Hormuz reopening could pull wholesale prices back down before 17 May, lowering the July cap below forecasts.
- Compare carefully: a deal at £1,900+ may not save money if forecasts prove too pessimistic.
For businesses with energy contracts up for renewal, the same logic applies at a larger scale. Verified business energy brokers in the Kaeltripton Financial Index can advise on commercial fixed contracts and flexible procurement strategies.
Government support — what is available
- Warm Home Discount: £150 annual rebate for eligible low-income households
- Winter Fuel Payment: now means-tested — Pension Credit recipients only
- Cold Weather Payment: £25 per 7-day cold spell, October to March only
No additional government support scheme has been announced for the expected July rise as of 18 April 2026.
Related Guides
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or energy advice. Always compare deals directly with suppliers or through a regulated broker before switching.
Frequently asked questions
What is the energy price cap for July 2026?
Ofgem has not yet announced the July 2026 cap — it confirms the figure by 27 May 2026. Current analyst forecasts range from £1,861 (Cornwall Insight, 9 April) to £1,937 (EDF, updated weekly). E.ON forecast £1,868 as of 13 April.
Why is the July 2026 energy price cap rising?
The primary cause is the Middle East conflict from 28 February 2026. US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global LNG supply and pushing European wholesale gas prices sharply higher. The July cap is calculated using a wholesale price window that captures the full impact of this disruption.
Should I fix my energy tariff before July 2026?
EDF calculates that a one-year fix at £1,872 or less could save money versus staying on the variable cap across the next 12 months. However, if tensions ease, cheaper fixes could return. Compare current deals against analyst forecasts before deciding.
When does the energy price cap change in 2026?
Quarterly: April–June £1,641 (confirmed). July–September: confirmed by 27 May 2026. October–December: confirmed by 26 August 2026.
Does the energy price cap limit my total bill?
No. It limits the unit rate per kWh and the maximum daily standing charge. If you use more than typical consumption values (2,700 kWh electricity and 11,500 kWh gas annually), your bill will exceed £1,641.
Sources and verification
- Ofgem — Q2 2026 cap £1,641 confirmed 25 February 2026; July announcement date 27 May 2026
- Cornwall Insight — July 2026 forecast £1,861, revised from £1,973 (9 April 2026)
- E.ON Next — July 2026 forecast £1,868 (13 April 2026)
- EDF Energy — July 2026 forecast £1,937, updated weekly; one-year fix breakeven £1,872
- MoneyWeek — BoE inflation 3.5% Q3 2026 forecast; Cornwall Insight principal consultant Craig Lowrey commentary (April 2026)
- MoneySavingExpert — cap methodology, EDF as primary forecast reference
- gov.uk — Warm Home Discount, Winter Fuel Payment, Cold Weather Payment scheme details
In this complete guide series
- Energy Price Cap July 2026: What Will Bills Cost?
- Energy Price Cap July 2026
- Energy Brokers on The Desk
- Ofgem Energy Price Cap Falls to £1,641 — What the April 2026 Cut Means
- Energy Price Cap July 2026: What It Means for Your Bills
- Economy 7 Times UK 2026: When Is Off-Peak Electricity?
- Best EV Tariff UK 2026: Cheapest Electric Car Charging Rates
- Is Gas Cheaper Than Electricity in the UK? 2026 Comparison
- Business Electricity Price Comparison UK 2026
- Business Electricity Quotes UK
- Business Gas Rates Comparison UK
- Cheapest Business Electricity Supplier UK
- Business Electricity Tariffs UK 2026
- Business Energy Quote UK
- Switch Business Energy Supplier UK
- Compare Business Energy Rates UK
- Business Electricity Comparison UK 2026
- Solar Panels UK 2026: Cost, Savings, Grants & Is It Worth It?
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