The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its next interest rate decision on Thursday 30 April 2026. The base rate currently stands at 3.75%, unchanged since August 2025, after the MPC voted unanimously to hold at its 19 March meeting.
The decision matters because it will be the first full monetary-policy response to the Iran war that erupted on 28 February. Every major UK mortgage lender has already repriced fixed deals upwards in anticipation.
Where the base rate stands today
| Date | Decision | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 7 August 2025 | 25bp cut | 4.00% |
| 18 December 2025 | 25bp cut | 3.75% |
| 5 February 2026 | Hold (5-4 vote) | 3.75% |
| 19 March 2026 | Hold (9-0 unanimous) | 3.75% |
| 30 April 2026 | Next decision | ? |
The inflation picture has shifted
Before the Iran conflict, the Bank expected CPI inflation to fall to around 2% from April, helped by the £117 cut to the energy price cap that took effect on 1 April. That forecast has now been revised upwards. Based on preliminary Bank estimates, CPI is now likely to sit between 3% and 3.5% over the second and third quarters of 2026, with energy the main driver.
January CPI was 3.0%. February held at 3.0%. The March print is due on 16 April — the last hard data the MPC will see before deciding on 30 April.
Three scenarios for April 30
Scenario 1: Hold at 3.75% (most likely)
This is the consensus expectation. Governor Andrew Bailey signalled after the March meeting that the committee would monitor Middle East developments extremely closely and stand ready to act. A hold buys time to see how the energy shock works through to headline inflation and wage growth.
Scenario 2: 25bp cut to 3.50%
Possible but unlikely on current data. A cut would require the inflation pass-through from energy to look temporary, the ceasefire to hold firmly, and oil to retreat below $85 a barrel. Some economists argue that underlying demand is already weakening enough to justify a cut regardless.
Scenario 3: 25bp hike to 4.00%
A tail risk, but no longer dismissed. After the March meeting, interest-rate futures briefly priced in two rate hikes in 2026 taking the base rate to 4.25%. A hike on 30 April would be a dramatic signal and is not the market base case — but it is no longer zero probability.
What it means for mortgages
Fixed-rate mortgage pricing is driven more by swap rates than by Bank Rate directly. Swaps have already moved upwards since the Iran conflict started, which is why the average two-year fix jumped from 4.83% at the start of March to around 5.90% by mid-April — the highest level since July 2024.
The implications by product type:
- Tracker mortgages — directly linked to Bank Rate. A hold on 30 April means no change. A cut reduces payments immediately.
- Fixed-rate mortgages — already repriced upwards. A hold probably locks in current elevated pricing for another six weeks.
- Standard variable rate (SVR) — lenders set SVRs independently but usually follow base rate over time.
What it means for savers
Savings rates have already started sliding despite the base rate being held — banks price off medium-term expectations, not just today's rate. If you have cash sitting in an easy-access account earning less than 4%, it may be worth comparing fixed-term deals before the April 30 decision, because any forward guidance from the MPC will likely feed through to new savings products within 48 hours.
What it means for businesses
For small and mid-sized firms with variable-rate debt, the immediate question is cash-flow planning through the remainder of Q2. Treasury teams are stress-testing a 4.00% and a 3.50% base-rate scenario. The longer-run question is capital expenditure — many businesses had been holding off investment decisions in the expectation of lower rates later in 2026. That thesis is now under review.
Key dates for the rest of 2026
- 16 April 2026 — March CPI inflation release
- 30 April 2026 — MPC decision and Monetary Policy Report
- 27 May 2026 — Ofgem Q3 energy price cap announcement
- 18 June 2026 — MPC decision
- 30 July 2026 — MPC decision
- 17 September 2026 — MPC decision
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and is not financial advice. Interest rate forecasts change rapidly and actual decisions by the Monetary Policy Committee depend on data not yet released at time of writing. Consult an independent financial adviser before making mortgage, savings or investment decisions.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the Bank of England rate decision on 30 April?
The MPC announces its decision at 12:00 noon UK time on the first Thursday after the meeting — in this case 30 April 2026. The Monetary Policy Report and press conference follow at 12:30.
If the Bank holds at 3.75%, will my mortgage go down?
Not directly, unless you are on a tracker. Fixed-rate deals depend on swap rates, which move on market expectations rather than the headline decision. A "hawkish hold" — where the Bank holds but signals higher for longer — can actually push fixed rates up.
How does the base rate affect inflation?
Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and saving more attractive, which reduces demand in the economy and over time cools price pressures. The effect typically takes 12 to 18 months to work through fully.
Is another rate cut possible this year?
Yes, particularly if the energy shock fades and inflation returns to trend. But it is no longer the base case markets are pricing. Two full cuts over the remainder of 2026 would require clear evidence the inflation spike is transitory.
