UK drivers have endured a record run of daily pump-price rises — 43 consecutive days through early April 2026 — driven by the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the RAC, the rate of increase has now almost ground to a halt, and with oil prices plunging more than 10% on 17 April, the first reductions at the pump could arrive within weeks.
The headline numbers
The House of Commons Library briefing on petrol and diesel prices, drawing on official data, reports that weekly data for the first three weeks of March 2026 showed petrol up 12 pence per litre and diesel up 25 pence per litre — a significantly larger move for diesel reflecting its heavier exposure to Middle East supply.
| Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| Petrol rise (first 3 weeks of March 2026) | +12p per litre |
| Diesel rise (first 3 weeks of March 2026) | +25p per litre |
| Fuel duty (petrol and diesel) | 52.95p per litre |
| Consecutive days of rises through early April | 43 |
| Typical supermarket vs national average gap | ~5p per litre cheaper |
Why diesel has risen faster
Diesel has risen more sharply than petrol for two linked reasons. First, middle distillate cracks — the margin between crude and refined diesel — reached all-time highs during the peak of the crisis. The IEA reported Singapore middle distillate prices above $290 per barrel at the worst point. Second, European diesel supply is unusually reliant on Middle East and Russian flows, both of which have been disrupted.
For UK businesses this matters disproportionately. Hauliers, construction firms, farmers, bus and taxi operators and many delivery networks run on diesel, so diesel inflation feeds almost directly into UK business costs and ultimately into the price of goods on shelves.
Where the oil price goes from here
On 17 April 2026, Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial vessels. Brent crude plunged more than 11% to around $88 per barrel and US WTI dropped 12% to near $83. If that opening holds, a sustained fall in pump prices is realistic — though the transmission takes time.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, told Honest John earlier in April: "With dated Brent crude under $100 a barrel for the last three trading days, there's now scope to see prices finally starting to go the other way. But, as always, it's a highly volatile situation with much depending on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz."
How much of a litre is tax?
Fuel duty has been the same for petrol and diesel for many years. It currently stands at 52.95p per litre — unchanged since the 5p-per-litre cut in March 2022 that was introduced in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In cash terms this is the lowest fuel duty rate since March 2009, and in real terms the lowest since March 1993. VAT at 20% is then applied to the total, including the duty.
For a driver filling a typical 55-litre tank at 160p per litre, the total cost is £88.00. Of that, around £29.11 is fuel duty and £14.67 is VAT — meaning roughly 50% of the tank cost goes to the Exchequer before any fuel leaves the pump.
Practical steps for drivers
If you drive regularly, a few habits can meaningfully cut spend during volatile periods:
- Use the government's Fuel Finder dataset (published twice daily) or apps like PetrolPrices.com to compare forecourts in your postcode before filling up
- Supermarket forecourts remain on average around 5p per litre cheaper than the national average — though that gap has narrowed since the 2025 pricing review
- Motorway service stations typically sit well above national averages; the premium can be 10-15p per litre on a bad day
- Keeping tyre pressures correct, removing roof boxes when not in use, and driving smoothly can reduce fuel consumption by 5-10%
For businesses
Fleet operators and small businesses with vehicles can insulate themselves somewhat by using fuel cards with fixed-margin pricing, adopting telematics to improve route and driver efficiency, and — for larger users — considering forward hedging on wholesale contracts. HMRC's Advisory Fuel Rates, which govern mileage reimbursement for company cars, are reviewed quarterly and should be rechecked in each new quarter during volatile periods.
What could still go wrong
The pump-price outlook hinges on whether the Hormuz opening holds. Key risks include Iran imposing transit tolls, a breakdown of the Lebanon ceasefire, renewed attacks on shipping, or infrastructure damage that prevents full restoration of export capacity. Refining margins may also take longer to normalise than the crude price itself, which would keep retail prices elevated relative to oil.
Frequently asked questions
The information in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute financial advice. Fuel prices change daily; check live sources before making any decisions that depend on current prices.
When will UK pump prices start falling?
Wholesale oil price changes typically take two to four weeks to reach UK forecourts. If the 17 April oil slide holds, initial reductions at the pump could appear by the first week of May, with further falls through the month if the Strait of Hormuz opening remains stable.
Why is diesel more expensive than petrol?
Diesel is currently more expensive because European refining capacity is tight and Middle East supply has been disrupted. The crude-to-diesel margin (the middle distillate crack) hit all-time highs during the crisis. Historically, diesel has been broadly similar to or slightly cheaper than petrol, so the current gap is unusual.
Is there a chance the government cuts fuel duty again?
HM Treasury has not signalled any further cut, and fuel duty remains 5p below its pre-March 2022 rate. Any change would be announced at a Budget or a formal fiscal event.
Are supermarket forecourts still the cheapest?
On average, yes — supermarkets remain around 5p per litre cheaper than the national average. But that gap has narrowed, and the difference on any given day depends heavily on local competition. Comparing three to four nearby forecourts before filling up is the single biggest saving most drivers can make.
