Last reviewed: 30 April 2026
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold the base rate at 3.75% on 30 April 2026, citing the ongoing war in the Middle East as the dominant risk to the UK's inflation outlook. The decision was widely expected by markets and all 62 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the meeting.
Why the Bank held rates
In its accompanying Monetary Policy Report, the BoE pointed directly to the Iran war as the chief source of economic uncertainty. The conflict has disrupted the transportation and supply of energy, pushing up motor fuel costs for households and threatening higher utility bills later in 2026.
UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 — up from 3.0% the previous month — driven largely by higher fuel prices. The Bank's own forecast had pencilled in a lower reading before the war began. The 2% inflation target remains the MPC's mandate, but policymakers acknowledged that monetary policy "cannot influence energy prices directly."
The MPC's statement noted that "the scale and duration of the shock, and how it propagates through the economy" will determine the policy stance needed to return inflation to target sustainably.
What it means for mortgages and savings
The hold at 3.75% means tracker mortgage holders will see no immediate change to their monthly payments. The base rate has fallen from its peak of 5.25% in 2023–24, but the pace of future cuts has become far less certain since the Iran conflict began in early 2026.
Markets had previously priced in two rate cuts during 2026. Traders have since scaled back to expecting at most one reduction — now most likely in December — and some analysts warn that a rate rise remains on the table if energy-driven inflation proves persistent.
For fixed-rate mortgage holders, the hold changes nothing until their deal expires. Those approaching a remortgage in 2026 face a more uncertain landscape than borrowers did at the start of the year, when rate cuts looked near-certain.
Savings rates
Easy-access savings rates have retreated from their 2023–24 highs as the base rate has fallen, but the hold preserves the current environment where competitive accounts still offer 4–5% AER at the top of the market. Savers should compare rates actively — providers have not moved in lockstep with base rate cuts.
Next MPC meeting
The next MPC meeting is scheduled for 18 June 2026. By then, the Bank will have two further CPI readings and another quarter of GDP data to assess. If oil prices ease materially before that meeting, the case for a rate cut in June could revive. If they remain elevated, a prolonged hold — or even a hike — becomes more credible.
Key numbers at a glance
| Metric | Current level |
|---|---|
| Bank of England base rate | 3.75% |
| UK CPI inflation (March 2026) | 3.3% |
| BoE inflation target | 2.0% |
| Next MPC meeting | 18 June 2026 |
| Oil price (Brent, approx.) | ~$126/barrel |
Frequently asked questions
Will the Bank of England cut rates in June 2026?
It depends on energy price movements. If oil retreats and inflation falls back toward 2.5%, a June cut is possible. Most analysts currently put the probability at below 40%.
Does the base rate affect my fixed mortgage?
No — your rate is fixed until your deal ends. The base rate will only affect your costs when you remortgage.
What is the current base rate?
3.75%, unchanged since the MPC's February 2026 meeting.
Could the Bank raise rates in 2026?
Yes, though it is not the central scenario. A prolonged energy shock that drives inflation above 4% would increase the probability of a hike. Markets currently price in roughly a 20–25% chance of a rise by December 2026.
Where can I track the base rate?
The Bank of England publishes every decision at bankofengland.co.uk.
Sources: Bank of England MPC announcement, 30 April 2026 | Reuters economist poll, 21 April 2026 | HomeOwners Alliance rate tracker | money.co.uk base rate history.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always speak to a qualified mortgage adviser before making borrowing decisions.
