TL;DR
- Ofgem publishes the energy price cap for 1 July to 30 September 2026 by 27 May 2026
- The current cap (1 April to 30 June 2026) is £1,641 a year for typical Direct Debit households, a fall of £117 or 7 per cent on the previous quarter
- Cornwall Insight has forecast the July cap could rise by approximately £290, to around £1,929
- Wholesale gas futures for Q3 2026 and winter 2026/27 have risen sharply on Middle East conflict concerns
- National Grid has confirmed at least £70bn of investment under the RIIO-3 framework, which feeds into network costs
Last reviewed: 15 May 2026
Key facts
- Cap publication date: By 27 May 2026 for the period 1 July to 30 September 2026
- Current cap (Q2 2026): £1,641 a year for typical Direct Debit dual-fuel household
- Quarter-on-quarter change: Down £117 or 7 per cent versus 1 January to 31 March 2026
- Year-on-year change: Down £208 or 11 per cent versus 1 April to 30 June 2025
- Electricity unit rate (default tariff): 24.67 p/kWh average across England, Scotland and Wales
- Gas unit rate (default tariff): 5.74 p/kWh average across England, Scotland and Wales
What Ofgem will announce on 27 May 2026
Ofgem reviews and sets the energy price cap every three months. The cap that runs from 1 July to 30 September 2026 will be published by 27 May 2026. The cap limits the maximum unit rates and standing charges that suppliers can charge customers on default tariffs. The actual annual cost a household pays depends on consumption, region and meter type.
Where the cap sits now (April to June 2026)
The current cap fell to £1,641 a year for a typical Direct Debit dual-fuel household from 1 April 2026. That is a fall of £117, or 7 per cent, on the previous quarter, and £208 or 11 per cent below the level a year earlier. Some of the fall reflects the removal of policy costs from energy bills and a £38 reduction in wholesale costs. Network costs added £66 to typical bills under the RIIO-3 framework, partially offsetting the wholesale fall.
Why forecasters expect a rise in July
Cornwall Insight has forecast a rise of approximately £290 a year on 1 July 2026, taking the typical Direct Debit cap to around £1,929. The Resolution Foundation has flagged a range of scenarios. In a higher-price scenario annual bills could settle near £2,100 for the autumn. The Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report set out scenarios in which oil peaks at $108 to $130 a barrel. Q3 2026 gas futures have close to doubled since the start of March, and winter 2026/27 futures are around 75 per cent higher.
What this means for businesses
The price cap covers domestic default tariffs. Business contracts are not capped. Small and medium businesses on rollover or out-of-contract terms are exposed to wholesale prices directly. Higher Q3 and Q4 futures translate quickly into new fixed offers for businesses renewing this summer. Businesses that have not reviewed their supply contract this year should request renewal quotes ahead of the price cap announcement, since the announcement tends to move retail offer prices for businesses as well as households.
What to do before 27 May 2026
Households on default tariffs can check current unit rates and standing charges by region on the Ofgem website. Customers struggling to pay should contact their supplier, which is required to offer help such as a repayment plan or emergency credit. Customers who qualify for the Warm Home Discount should check their eligibility for the 2026/27 scheme. Smart meter customers should also confirm meter readings are submitting correctly to avoid catch-up bills if the cap rises.
Disclaimer. This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial, tax, immigration or legal advice. Figures, thresholds and rules can change. Always check the current position with the relevant authority (GOV.UK, HMRC, FCA, Ofgem or the appropriate regulator) before acting.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly does Ofgem publish the July 2026 cap?
By 27 May 2026. Ofgem publishes the cap level for each three-month period in advance of it taking effect.
Will the cap definitely rise in July?
Forecasters expect a rise driven by higher wholesale gas futures. The final figure depends on prices across the full assessment window, which is only half complete at the time of the latest published forecast.
Does the cap apply to fixed-rate tariffs?
No. The cap applies to default (standard variable) tariffs. Fixed-rate deals are set by the supplier at the point of contract.
Does the cap apply to businesses?
No. The price cap is for domestic default tariffs only. Business contracts are not capped and small businesses on out-of-contract rates are exposed directly to wholesale prices.
How do I check my supplier's rates against the cap?
Ofgem publishes the cap level by region, payment type, and meter type. The cap shows the maximum unit rate and standing charge a supplier can charge on a default tariff in each region.
