TL;DR
Scottish Widows' Retirement Report 2026, published 13 May 2026, estimates that around 12.2 million UK adults, or 31% of the population, are on track for less than a minimum retirement lifestyle. That is an improvement on the 15.3 million estimated a year earlier. The provider said the improvement was driven partly by higher pay, increased non-pension savings and homeownership, but warned that rising energy costs could reverse the progress. Part-time workers and the self-employed are most at risk.
Last reviewed: 14 May 2026
The gap between what people hope for in retirement and what their savings are likely to deliver remains one of the defining personal finance challenges in the UK. The latest annual Retirement Report from pension provider Scottish Widows, published on 13 May 2026, puts a number on it: around 12.2 million UK adults are at risk of being unable to cover their basic financial needs once they stop working.
The headline figure is large, but the report also records a year on year improvement and identifies the groups most exposed. This article sets out what the report found, why the estimate has moved, who is most at risk, and what the findings suggest for people still building their retirement savings.
What the Retirement Report found
The report uses Scottish Widows' National Retirement Forecast, which projects retirement outcomes for people aged 22 to 65 based on their savings, behaviours and income sources. It compares expected retirement income against the living and housing costs people are likely to face. The forecast draws on a survey of around 6,000 people carried out by YouGov in February 2026.
The 2026 report estimates that 31% of the population, around 12.2 million people, are on track for less than the minimum retirement lifestyle. That is down from 39%, or 15.3 million people, in the equivalent estimate a year earlier.
Why the estimate has improved
Scottish Widows attributed the improvement to several factors. People who do not save into a pension have seen gains elsewhere, including slightly higher pay, increased savings held outside pension schemes, and higher expected rates of homeownership in retirement. Falls in energy costs also lowered the benchmark for how much households are estimated to need to live on.
The provider was explicit that this progress is fragile. With global events pushing energy costs back up, the report cautioned that the improvement could be undone. Factors that individuals can control when saving, the report noted, can easily be thrown off course by external pressures such as rising bills.
Who is most at risk
The report found that risk is not spread evenly. Fewer than one in five full-time employees are projected to face pension poverty. By contrast, more than a third of people in part-time employment, or who are self-employed, are on track for a less than minimum retirement lifestyle.
A key reason is automatic enrolment. Employees earning above the earnings threshold are automatically enrolled into a workplace pension, with contributions from both worker and employer. The self-employed are not covered by automatic enrolment at all, and part-time workers earning below the threshold are also outside it. That leaves a significant group building retirement savings, if at all, without the structure that automatic enrolment provides.
What Scottish Widows is calling for
The report set out policy suggestions alongside its findings. Scottish Widows said increasing automatic enrolment contributions from the current 8% to 12% could substantially reduce pension poverty among defined contribution savers who currently contribute below 12%. The provider also called for automatic enrolment style saving solutions for the self-employed, and for better integration between pensions, other savings and housing wealth.
These are proposals rather than confirmed changes. Any change to automatic enrolment minimum contributions would be a government decision and would follow its own process.
What it means for people saving for retirement
For individuals, the report is a prompt to check where they stand rather than a forecast of any one person's outcome. People with a workplace pension can check their current contribution rate and whether their employer offers matching above the minimum. Those who are self-employed or work part-time below the automatic enrolment threshold have to take more active steps, as the default structure does not apply to them.
The State Pension provides a foundation but is set at a level intended to be a base rather than a complete retirement income. Anyone wanting to understand their own position can request a State Pension forecast from the government and review any private or workplace pension statements. Where the picture is complex, regulated financial advice can help, and free, impartial guidance is available through government-backed services.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial or pension advice. The figures cited come from Scottish Widows' Retirement Report 2026 and are projections based on survey data, not guarantees of any individual outcome. Anyone making decisions about retirement saving should consider their own circumstances and, where appropriate, seek regulated financial advice or use a government-backed guidance service.
Frequently asked questions
How many UK adults are at risk of pension poverty?
Scottish Widows' Retirement Report 2026 estimates that around 12.2 million UK adults, or 31% of the population, are on track for less than a minimum retirement lifestyle. This is down from 15.3 million, or 39%, in the equivalent estimate a year earlier.
Why has the estimate improved compared with last year?
Scottish Widows attributed the improvement to slightly higher pay, increased savings held outside pension schemes, higher expected homeownership in retirement, and falls in energy costs that lowered the estimated cost of living. The provider warned that rising energy costs could reverse this progress.
Which groups are most at risk?
Part-time workers and the self-employed are most exposed. More than a third of people in part-time employment or self-employment are projected to face a less than minimum retirement lifestyle, compared with fewer than one in five full-time employees.
What change to automatic enrolment did the report suggest?
The report suggested that increasing automatic enrolment contributions from the current 8% to 12% could substantially reduce pension poverty among defined contribution savers contributing below 12%. This is a policy proposal, not a confirmed change.
How can I check my own retirement position?
You can request a State Pension forecast from the government and review your workplace or private pension statements. Where the picture is complex, regulated financial advice or a government-backed guidance service can help you understand your options.
How we verified this
This article is based on Scottish Widows' Retirement Report 2026, published 13 May 2026, including its National Retirement Forecast estimate that 12.2 million UK adults, or 31%, are on track for less than a minimum retirement lifestyle, down from 15.3 million a year earlier. The forecast methodology, the YouGov survey of around 6,000 people in February 2026, the risk breakdown by employment type, and the automatic enrolment contribution proposals are drawn from the report and published coverage of it. Background on automatic enrolment and the State Pension reflects GOV.UK guidance.
