TL;DR
- Ofgem announces the Q3 2026 cap (1 July to 30 September) on 27 May 2026.
- Q2 cap is £1,641 for typical dual fuel direct debit usage, down 6.6% on Q1.
- Q3 assessment window: 18 February 2025 to 18 May 2026.
- Major forecasters expect a modest rise from July driven by Middle East-linked wholesale gas pressure.
- The cap covers around 19 million SVT accounts; fixed-tariff customers are unaffected until their deal ends.
Last reviewed: 16 May 2026
What is being announced
Ofgem confirms the next quarterly energy price cap on 27 May 2026. The new level applies from 1 July to 30 September 2026 and replaces the current Q2 cap of £1,641 a year for a typical household paying by direct debit. Current Q2 rates are 5.74p/kWh gas and 24.67p/kWh electricity, with standing charges of 29.1p/day for gas and 57.2p/day for electricity, averaged across England, Scotland and Wales.
What forecasters expect
The Q3 cap is set against a backdrop of elevated wholesale gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Forecasting services from EDF, British Gas and E.ON Next were pointing to a modest rise from 1 July in their May 2026 updates. Independent forecasters have flagged that the assessment window closes on 18 May, so any further escalation has limited room to move the Q3 number, but Q4 (announced 26 August) remains highly exposed.
Who is affected
The cap applies to households on standard variable tariffs and prepayment meters, which together cover around 19 million customer accounts. Fixed-tariff customers are insulated for the duration of their fix. The market for cheap fixed deals has thinned since the start of the conflict, with several suppliers pulling fixes or repricing them above the cap.
What households can do before 27 May
For SVT customers, no action is automatically needed. For those weighing a fix, the trade-off is between paying a premium for certainty and staying on the cap in the hope wholesale prices fall back. Households on prepayment meters should ensure they are receiving any Warm Home Discount or local authority hardship support they qualify for; the £150 Warm Home Discount remains in place for the 2026 to 2027 winter.
What changes in April 2026 still apply
The Q2 cap reflected the November 2025 Budget changes, where the Energy Company Obligation levy was scrapped and certain green levies moved to general taxation. Those structural reductions remain in the cap; the Q3 movement is mostly wholesale-driven.
Editorial note: Kael Tripton is an independent UK publisher. This article is general information, not financial, legal or regulated advice. Figures, rates and rules can change after publication. Always check the primary sources linked below before acting.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Q3 cap announced?
27 May 2026. The new rates apply from 1 July 2026 to 30 September 2026.
Does the cap limit my total bill?
No. The cap limits the unit rate (p/kWh) and the daily standing charge. Higher usage means a higher bill regardless.
Should I fix before the announcement?
That depends on your view of how long the Middle East-linked pressure on wholesale gas lasts. If conflict eases, cheaper fixes typically return and the cap may fall in later quarters. If it drags on, locking in could protect against further rises. The cheapest fix for your region and usage may also differ from the headline cap figure.
What if I am on prepayment?
The cap applies to prepayment meters in the same way as direct debit, with separate rates. Around 6 million UK accounts are on prepayment.
