Indian students and skilled workers are leaving the United Kingdom in greater numbers than at any point in the last decade, on the combined evidence of the Office for National Statistics International Migration release, the Home Office Immigration system statistics and the Higher Education Statistics Agency student return. The pattern is not a single number but a convergence of three independent data sources around the same direction.
Last reviewed: May 2026
TL;DR: Indian net migration to the UK has moved sharply downward in the most recent ONS release. Indian study visa grants are down roughly 38 per cent on the 2022-23 peak in the Home Office quarterly release. HESA confirms a parallel fall in Indian first-year enrolments. The driver mix is the January 2024 dependant ban for taught masters, the April 2024 increase in the Skilled Worker salary threshold to GBP 38,700, the closure of the dependant route for care workers, the upward step in maintenance funds and the broader cost of living rise in London and the major university cities. Indian students and workers still form one of the two largest non-EU communities in the UK; the change is in the direction of the flow, not in its absolute level.
- Indian study visa main applicant grants are down approximately 38 per cent against the 2022-23 peak on the Home Office quarterly file.
- Indian Skilled Worker grants fell by approximately 24 per cent in the year ending March 2026 against the previous twelve months, on the same release.
- Indian Health and Care Worker grants fell by more than half once the dependant route for care workers closed in March 2024.
- The Skilled Worker general salary threshold was raised to GBP 38,700 on 4 April 2024 in the Statement of Changes (HC 590).
- HESA records Indian first-year enrolments down 25 per cent in 2024-25 against 2022-23.
What the ONS, Home Office and HESA data say
The ONS International Migration release combines visa data from the Home Office with traveller surveys, registration data and the Department for Work and Pensions data on National Insurance numbers. Indian net migration in the latest ONS estimate is down sharply from the post-pandemic peak. The drop is driven by lower inflows on the Student and Skilled Worker routes and by higher outflows in the cohorts who entered on the Graduate route from 2021 onward and have now reached the end of their permitted post-study stay.
The Home Office Immigration system statistics quarterly release breaks the same flow into application and grant counts by route and by nationality. Indian study visa grants peaked in the year ending September 2023 and have fallen materially since. Indian Skilled Worker grants peaked later, in the year ending March 2024, and the fall began as the April 2024 salary threshold change worked through the system. Indian Health and Care Worker grants peaked earlier and fell off a cliff once the March 2024 dependant restriction took effect.
HESA, the higher education statistics agency, publishes the student return on a calendar lag of around twelve months. The latest HESA file, covering the 2024-25 academic year, shows Indian first-year enrolments down 25 per cent on the 2022-23 peak. The HESA fall is smaller than the UKVI grants fall, because HESA captures students enrolled across multiple year groups, while UKVI captures the marginal year-of-entry grant.
The dependant ban and its disproportionate effect on Indian families
The January 2024 Statement of Changes blocked most taught-masters students from bringing dependants on the Student route, with narrow carve-outs for research postgraduates and government-sponsored programmes. The rule applied to all nationalities. Its effect on Indian applications was unusually large because Indian taught-masters applications had skewed heavily toward family applications, with spouse and child dependants applying alongside the principal Student visa in a high proportion of cases.
Before the change, in the year ending September 2023, Indian study dependant applications were among the largest single dependant flows on the UK system. After the change, the dependant element collapsed to a small residual. The Home Office's nationality breakdown in the dependant data shows the Indian fall as the largest single nationality contribution to the drop in overall study dependant grants in 2024 and 2025.
The downstream effect on the principal student count is harder to attribute. Industry surveys conducted by recruitment agents and reported in trade outlets such as The Pie News and Times Higher Education during 2024 and 2025 record Indian agents reporting that mid-career applicants, who had been the most likely to bring dependants, are increasingly redirecting applications to Canada, Ireland, the United States and Australia.
The Skilled Worker GBP 38,700 threshold and care worker route
The April 2024 Statement of Changes (HC 590) raised the Skilled Worker general salary threshold to GBP 38,700 from the previous figure, raised the going-rates for many occupations and adjusted the new entrant discount. The change made several common occupations, including health and social care assistants, business support roles and a range of mid-band IT positions, harder to sponsor at the new floor.
The same package closed the dependant route on the Health and Care Worker visa for new applicants from March 2024. Indian care workers had been the largest single nationality on the Health and Care Worker route, and the dependant restriction removed the family-based business case that the route had previously supported. Indian Health and Care Worker grants more than halved in the year that followed.
On the broader Skilled Worker route, Indian grants remained sizeable but fell against the post-pandemic peak. The fall was concentrated in mid-band IT, technical support and lower-paid health roles where the new salary floor cut into sponsorship economics. Higher-paid IT, finance and senior healthcare roles continued to clear the threshold without difficulty and Indian grants in those subcategories held up.
Maintenance funds, IHS and the cost of living calculation
The Student visa maintenance requirement, which sets out how much applicants must show in bank evidence, was raised in the 2024 and 2025 Statement of Changes cycles. The Immigration Health Surcharge increased to GBP 1,035 per year for adults from February 2024. Tuition fees for the major Indian-target masters programmes rose by ten to fifteen per cent across the same period, and the London accommodation market for student housing remained tight.
The cumulative effect on the upfront cost of a UK masters cycle is significant. An Indian applicant pricing a one-year taught masters in London in 2026 typically faces tuition fees of around GBP 25,000 to GBP 32,000 depending on the programme, maintenance evidence of around GBP 13,000, an IHS of GBP 1,035 and an application fee of GBP 524. The before-arrival outlay alone reaches the order of GBP 40,000, before flights or set-up costs.
The post-arrival cost picture compounds the issue. London rents in the student accommodation market reached a published median of more than GBP 1,000 per month in the most recent HEPI cost-of-living survey, and weekly grocery costs for international students rose materially through 2024 and 2025. The Graduate route allows two years of work after a UK masters, but converting that into a stable Skilled Worker route requires clearing the GBP 38,700 threshold and a graduate-entry salary at that level is not universal across sectors.
The outflow side: Graduate route expiries and onward moves
The Graduate route opened in July 2021 and grants two years of unsponsored work after a UK degree (three for PhD graduates). The first cohort to take up the route reached the end of its permitted stay during 2023, and the larger second and third cohorts reached the end during 2024 and 2025. The ONS data captures the outflow as those cohorts leave the country, return to India, or move on to Canada, Ireland or the Gulf for the next stage of their careers.
The outflow is not equally distributed across sectors. IT graduates with a UK masters and a Graduate route stamp have moved in significant numbers to Canada, where the federal Express Entry programme and the provincial nominee programmes continue to offer permanent residence on a relatively predictable timeline. The Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have absorbed a smaller cohort, often in finance, consulting and technical roles.
What employers and universities are saying
Universities UK, the Russell Group and MillionPlus have published submissions to the Treasury and to the Migration Advisory Committee that quantify the financial exposure of the sector to the fall in Indian and other south-Asian intake. The submissions identify post-92 universities with the heaviest taught-masters reliance as most exposed, and call for the dependant rule to be revisited at least for high-skilled programmes.
Employer-side submissions from the Confederation of British Industry and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation have flagged the Skilled Worker salary threshold and the closure of the care worker dependant route as the most economically consequential pieces of the 2024 package. The combination of a higher salary floor and a tighter dependant rule is described by both bodies as having narrowed the practical pool of sponsoring employers, particularly outside London and the south-east.
What the 2026 data points to next
The next round of Home Office quarterly statistics, due in late August 2026, will be the first measurement after the May 2026 fiscal event. The ONS International Migration release on its usual November cycle will capture the next net migration estimate. HESA's 2025-26 student return will follow during the spring of 2027.
The directional read across the three series is consistent. Indian inflows have softened; Indian Graduate route expiries have lifted outflows; the net effect is a measurable reduction in the Indian net contribution to UK net migration. Whether the pattern continues depends on the policy mix, on the relative attractiveness of competing destinations, and on the broader cost-of-living trajectory in the UK.
Frequently asked questions
How much have Indian student visa grants fallen on the Home Office series?
Indian study main applicant grants are down approximately 38 per cent from the 2022-23 peak on the Home Office Immigration system statistics quarterly release. The fall is concentrated in the taught-masters segment and is closely linked to the January 2024 dependant rule.
How much did the Skilled Worker salary threshold rise in April 2024?
The general salary threshold for the Skilled Worker route rose to GBP 38,700 on 4 April 2024 under HC 590. The change also raised going-rates for many occupations and adjusted the new entrant discount.
What happened to the care worker dependant route?
The dependant route on the Health and Care Worker visa closed for new applicants from March 2024 under the same Statement of Changes package. Indian Health and Care Worker grants more than halved in the year that followed.
Are Indian people the largest non-EU community in the UK?
Indian nationals remain one of the two largest non-EU national groups in the UK alongside Nigerian nationals across recent ONS estimates. The change captured in the 2026 data is in the direction and pace of net flow, not in the absolute size of the community.
Where are Indian Graduate route holders moving on to?
Recruitment industry reporting and onward-destination surveys point to Canada (via Express Entry and provincial nominee programmes), Ireland, the United States and the Gulf states (particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia) as the most common onward destinations after a UK Graduate route stay expires.
Will the policy mix change after the 2026 fiscal event?
The Migration Advisory Committee's 2024 Graduate route review recommended retention with tighter compliance, not abolition. Any change to the Student, Graduate or Skilled Worker routes requires a fresh Statement of Changes laid before Parliament. The next regular Statement of Changes cycle follows the autumn fiscal event in 2026.
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