The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to hold the base rate at 3.75% at its March meeting, with four members pushing for a cut to 3.50%. The next MPC decision lands on Thursday 30 April 2026 — and markets are now leaning firmly towards another hold.
A Reuters poll of 50 economists found that 45 expect the Bank to keep rates unchanged on 30 April, while five predict a 25-basis-point hike. This marks a sharp shift from earlier in 2026, when multiple rate cuts were widely forecast.
Why the outlook has changed
The shift reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict on UK inflation. CPI inflation held at 3% in February 2026, well above the Bank's 2% target, and oil price volatility from the Strait of Hormuz disruption is expected to slow the path back to target. Inflation had been expected to fall towards 2% from April, supported by the new Ofgem price cap period, but the energy shock may delay that.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated in recent media comments that monetary policy is not on a pre-set path, and that further cuts remain data-dependent.
What this means for mortgage rates
Average fixed mortgage rates have edged up in recent weeks as lenders reprice following swap-rate volatility. According to Rightmove data updated 16 April 2026, the average standard variable rate is close to 8%, while competitive five-year fixed deals start from around 3.8% with a circa £999 fee.
| Rate Type | Indicative Average (April 2026) |
|---|---|
| BoE Base Rate | 3.75% |
| Average SVR | ~7.15% |
| Best 2-year fixed | From ~3.6% |
| Best 5-year fixed | From ~3.8% |
| 5-year tracker (BBR + 0.60%) | ~4.35% |
Rates vary widely by lender, loan-to-value, product fee and personal circumstances.
What the market is pricing
Money market pricing still points to one or two further quarter-point cuts across 2026, taking the base rate towards the 3.25%–3.50% range. The pace depends on whether wage growth continues to cool and services inflation shows clearer signs of easing.
A smaller group of forecasters now see scope for a hike if the Middle East situation escalates further and pushes inflation expectations up. Tembo and other commentators have noted that some lenders have repriced purchase mortgage rates above 5% in response to the wholesale volatility.
Disclaimer
This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Mortgage rates and product availability change frequently. Always seek advice from an FCA-regulated mortgage broker before making any mortgage decisions. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
FAQ
When is the next Bank of England rate decision?
Thursday 30 April 2026.
Will mortgage rates fall in 2026?
Forecasts are mixed. Markets price in one or two further 0.25% cuts in 2026 if inflation eases, but the Middle East conflict has introduced significant uncertainty.
Should I fix my mortgage now?
Speak to an FCA-regulated mortgage broker. They can review deals across the whole of market and assess your individual circumstances against your existing deal and remortgage timeline.
