UK Economy Grows 0.7% in July to September

What the ONS figures show

The Office for National Statistics published its first quarterly estimate of UK gross domestic product for July to September 2026 at 7am on 12 November 2026. According to the ONS, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in July to September 2026, which is Quarter 3. That follows growth of 0.5% in April to June 2026, which is Quarter 2.

Measured against the same quarter a year earlier, real GDP is up 1.9% compared with July to September 2025, the ONS said. On a per head basis, real GDP rose by 0.7% in the quarter and is up 1.7% on the same quarter a year earlier, according to the same release. The ONS also says there are no revisions to previously published GDP data in this release.

Month by month

The quarterly figure is built from three monthly estimates. On a monthly basis, GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026, which the ONS reports as unrevised. In August 2026, GDP showed no growth, revised down from 0.1% in earlier data. In September 2026, GDP grew by 0.2%, according to the ONS.

Those monthly figures describe how output moved within the quarter rather than across it. The ONS presents them alongside the quarterly estimate in the same release, and each is attributed to the ONS first estimate published on 12 November 2026. The August revision down to no growth and the September rise of 0.2% sit within a quarter the ONS estimates grew by 0.7% overall.

Services, production and construction

Services output grew by 0.9% in the quarter and is up 2.3% on a year earlier, the ONS said. Production output grew by 0.1% in the quarter and is up 1.5% on a year earlier. Construction output fell by 0.7% in the quarter and is down 1.7% on a year earlier.

These three sector figures are part of the same ONS first estimate for July to September 2026. The services rise of 0.9% in the quarter compares with the 0.7% rise in real GDP over the same period, while construction recorded a fall of 0.7% in the quarter and a fall of 1.7% on a year earlier. Production recorded a rise of 0.1% in the quarter and a rise of 1.5% on a year earlier.

How reliable is a first estimate

A first estimate is an early reading of the economy and can be revised. The ONS publishes revision statistics to show how far its first numbers have typically moved. Since 2000, the mean revision between the first estimate and the estimate three years later is 0.08 percentage points, and the mean absolute revision is 0.27 percentage points, according to the ONS.

The mean revision describes the average direction and size of change, while the mean absolute revision describes the average size of change regardless of direction. Both are given in percentage points and both are attributed to the ONS. The next ONS estimate, the quarterly national accounts for July to September 2026, is due on 22 December 2026.

Source: ONS: GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: July to September 2026.

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Frequently asked questions

When did the ONS publish the July to September 2026 GDP estimate?

The ONS published its first quarterly estimate of UK GDP for July to September 2026 at 7am on 12 November 2026.

How much did real GDP grow in July to September 2026?

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in July to September 2026, following growth of 0.5% in April to June 2026, according to the ONS.

How does this compare with a year earlier?

Real GDP is up 1.9% compared with July to September 2025, the ONS said.

What happened month by month in the quarter?

GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026 (unrevised), showed no growth in August 2026 (revised down from 0.1%) and grew by 0.2% in September 2026, according to the ONS.

How did the sectors perform?

Services output grew by 0.9% in the quarter and is up 2.3% on a year earlier. Production output grew by 0.1% in the quarter and is up 1.5% on a year earlier. Construction output fell by 0.7% in the quarter and is down 1.7% on a year earlier.