UK population growth slowest since 1998 as migration falls

The ONS estimates the UK population was 69.5 million at 30 June 2025, up 227,665 in a year. Net migration fell to 222,900 and births hit a four-decade low.

Chandraketu Tripathi

Finance Editor, Kaeltripton

Published 1 Oct 2026

Last reviewed 1 Oct 2026

✓ Fact-checked

✓ Cited by AI assistants

DataUpdated 1 October 2026

The ONS estimates the UK population was 69.5 million at 30 June 2025, a rise of 227,665 over 12 months and the slowest growth outside the pandemic since 1998. Net migration fell to 222,900 from 651,700 the year before. Births, at 652,400, were the lowest for more than four decades.

TL;DR · LAST REVIEWED The ONS estimates the UK population was 69.5 million at 30 June 2025, a rise of 227,665 over 12 months and the slowest growth outside the pandemic since 1998. Net migration fell to 222,900 from 651,700 the year before. Births, at 652,400, were the lowest for more than four decades.

The ONS estimates 69,483,939 people lived in the UK on 30 June 2025, about 69.5 million.
The population rose by 227,665 over the previous 12 months, the slowest non-pandemic growth since 1998.
Net migration was 222,900, down from 651,700 in the year to mid-2024.
There were 652,400 births, the lowest for more than four decades, and 647,500 deaths.

KEY FACTS

The headline figure: The ONS estimates the UK population was 69.5 million at 30 June 2025, an increase of 227,665 on the previous 12 months
Slowest growth outside the pandemic since 1998: That rate of increase is the lowest non-pandemic growth recorded since 1998
Net migration fell steeply: Net migration in the year to mid-2025 is estimated at 222,900, down from 651,700 in the previous 12 months
Births at a four-decade low: There were 652,400 births in the year to mid-2025, the lowest number for more than 40 years
Natural change is close to zero: With 647,500 deaths, births exceeded deaths by only 4,900 across the whole UK
The provisional figure has been revised: The provisional estimate published in November 2025 put net migration at 204,000 and the population at 69,487,000; these full estimates supersede those figures

The numbers

The Office for National Statistics published population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland for mid-2025 on 1 October 2026. The headline figure for the UK is 69,483,939 people at 30 June 2025, or approximately 69.5 million. The population increased by 227,665 compared with the previous 12 months. The ONS states that population growth in the UK has slowed to its lowest non-pandemic level since 1998.

Measure	Year to mid-2025
UK population at 30 June 2025	69,483,939 (about 69.5 million)
Change on previous 12 months	Up 227,665
Net migration	222,900
Births	652,400
Deaths	647,500
Natural change (births minus deaths)	Up 4,900

These are estimates rather than a count of individuals. Mid-year population estimates are produced using the cohort component method, which rolls forward the previous population using recorded births, deaths and migration. The figures are accredited official statistics, independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation against the Code of Practice for Statistics. Estimates by area, age and sex are published alongside the headline UK figure. In the separate England and Wales estimates published on 29 July 2026, the population of England was 58,834,800 and the population of Wales was 3,175,200 at mid-2025, with net international migration to England and Wales of 211,700, down from 612,500 in the year to mid-2024.

What changed, and by how much

The comparison that explains the slowdown is migration. Net migration in the year to mid-2025 is estimated at 222,900, down from 651,700 in the previous 12 months. That is a fall of roughly two thirds. At the same time, births fell to their lowest level for more than four decades, at 652,400. Deaths in the year to mid-2025 were 647,500. The arithmetic of population change is straightforward: births minus deaths, plus net migration. With natural change at only 4,900, almost all of the increase of 227,665 came from migration.

Put another way, the two components of change moved in the same direction. The migration component, at 222,900, was smaller than in the previous year. The natural change component, at 4,900, was close to zero. The sum of the two is 227,800 before rounding, which is consistent with the published increase of 227,665. The ONS describes the resulting growth rate as the lowest outside the pandemic period since 1998. The mid-2024 UK population estimate was 69,281,000, so the mid-2025 figure is 202,939 higher than that earlier estimate, a difference that reflects both the change in the latest year and revisions to earlier years. The ONS revises earlier estimates as more complete records become available, so year-on-year comparisons use the latest published series rather than figures quoted at the time.

Births, deaths and what comes next

Natural change has been close to zero for several years. In the 12 months to mid-2023 there were more deaths than births in the UK, giving negative natural change of minus 16,300. In the year to mid-2025 the position returned to a small positive figure of 4,900, but the level remains low by historical standards. Births of 652,400 are the lowest for more than four decades, while deaths of 647,500 reflect an ageing population structure. The gap between the two is narrow enough that small changes in either series can move natural change above or below zero from one year to the next.

ONS projections published earlier in 2026 suggested deaths could outnumber births each year in the UK from 2026 onwards. That is a projection, not a measurement, and projections depend on assumptions about future birth and death rates that may not be borne out. If it were to occur, the arithmetic would be that natural change would be negative, and any population growth would then come from migration alone. The ONS publishes projections to show how the population would change if recent demographic patterns continued. They are not forecasts of what will happen, and they are revised when new data or new assumptions are adopted. The mid-2025 estimates are a measurement, in the sense that they are the ONS best estimate of what has already occurred, whereas the projection describes a possible future path.

Why the figure changed since November

The ONS published a provisional estimate on 27 November 2025 putting the UK population at mid-2025 at 69,487,000 and estimating long-term net migration at 204,000, with around 653,000 births and 651,000 deaths. The full estimates published on 1 October 2026 put the population at 69,483,939 and net migration at 222,900. The population figure is therefore slightly lower than the provisional number, while net migration is revised up by about 19,000. The provisional estimate was based on incomplete data, and the ONS said full estimates would include international migration estimates updated with the latest and most complete data. Provisional estimates are produced to give an earlier indication of the likely level, and they are revised as more complete migration, birth and death records arrive.

The full estimates also revise earlier years, which means that comparisons with figures published previously may not match. Readers should be aware that older pages, trackers and commentary may still quote the 204,000 figure for net migration in the year to mid-2025. That number was the provisional estimate and has been superseded. The same applies to the provisional population figure of 69,487,000. Where a figure is quoted, the date of publication matters as much as the number itself, because the ONS series is revised over time. The revisions are not corrections of error in the ordinary sense; they reflect the arrival of better data, particularly for international migration, which is the component of population change that is hardest to measure promptly.

What these estimates are used for

Mid-year population estimates feed a range of official uses. They inform local authority funding allocations, NHS and school planning, and the denominators used in rates such as unemployment and mortality. Because the estimates are used as denominators, revisions carry through into other statistics. A change in the estimated population for an area changes the rate of any event measured against it, even if the number of events itself is unchanged. This is why the ONS publishes revisions alongside the headline figures and why users of the data are advised to check the latest release rather than rely on earlier versions.

The estimates are accredited official statistics, independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation against the Code of Practice for Statistics. Figures by area, age and sex are published alongside the headline UK number, and the England and Wales estimates published on 29 July 2026 give separate figures for those nations. The ONS produces the estimates using the cohort component method, which starts from the previous population estimate and adds births, subtracts deaths and adds net migration. The method means the estimates are internally consistent with the recorded components, but it also means that any error in a component, particularly migration, flows into the population total. The ONS states that population estimates are estimates rather than exact counts of individual people.

Source: ONS: population estimates for the UK, mid-2025.

RELATED GUIDES

DISCLAIMER

Population estimates are modelled figures, not a count of individuals, and are revised as more complete data arrives. Figures quoted elsewhere may come from the earlier provisional release. Projections are not forecasts of certainty. Source: Office for National Statistics, Open Government Licence v3.0.

Frequently asked questions

What was the UK population at 30 June 2025?

The ONS estimates that 69,483,939 people lived in the UK on 30 June 2025, approximately 69.5 million.

How much did the UK population grow in the year to mid-2025?

The population increased by 227,665 compared with the previous 12 months. The ONS states this is the lowest non-pandemic level of growth since 1998.

What was net migration in the year to mid-2025?

Net migration is estimated at 222,900, down from 651,700 in the previous 12 months.

How many births and deaths were there in the year to mid-2025?

There were 652,400 births, the lowest for more than four decades, and 647,500 deaths. Natural change, the difference between the two, contributed an increase of only 4,900.

Why does the net migration figure differ from the one published in November 2025?

The ONS published a provisional estimate on 27 November 2025 putting net migration at 204,000. The full estimates published on 1 October 2026 revise that to 222,900. The provisional estimate was based on incomplete data and the ONS said full estimates would include international migration estimates updated with the latest and most complete data.

SOURCES