DWP models a weaker triple lock as the PM reopens the question

What was published

On 29 September 2026 the Department for Work and Pensions published State Pension uprating analysis 2026. The publication states that savings estimates are produced by comparing long-run projected State Pension expenditure under the adjusted Triple Lock uprating mechanism with expenditure under the current Triple Lock. It provides illustrative savings and poverty projections under an adjusted Triple Lock State Pension uprating, applying a path for uprating the basic and new State Pension and comparing the resulting pensioner incomes to a projected poverty threshold. The publication states that the figures were created to understand the impact of a different uprating mechanism for the State Pension, and that releasing the information serves the public interest in understanding that impact.

The analysis isolates the modelled effect of uprating policy, rather than behavioural responses or wider policy and macroeconomic changes. It covers Great Britain. The publication notes that the Triple Lock and the adjusted Triple Lock respond differently to movements in earnings and inflation, which can compound over time and affect projected expenditure. Publishing modelling is not the same as announcing a policy. The document sets out what an alternative mechanism could do to long-run spending and to pensioner incomes relative to a projected poverty threshold; it does not set out a decision, a timetable for one, or a change to any payment. The publication also states that the government has committed to uprating on the basis of the Triple Lock throughout this parliament.

What the Prime Minister said

Andy Burnham used his Labour Party conference speech in Liverpool on 29 September 2026 to signal that the triple lock should be reviewed for the party's next manifesto. The speech set out a position for a future manifesto rather than a change to current policy. Labour's 2024 manifesto committed to keeping the triple lock for this parliament, and the government's position is that the commitment holds until the next general election. The two statements sit at different points in time: one covers the current parliament, the other looks to the next manifesto.

For readers tracking what this means for payments, the distinction matters. A signal that a policy should be reviewed for a future manifesto is not a decision to change it now, and it does not alter the uprating rules that apply to the April 2027 rise or to the rises after it in this parliament. The speech and the DWP publication appeared on the same day, but they are separate: one is a political signal about a future manifesto, the other is an analysis of a modelled alternative. Neither, on its own, changes the mechanism that is currently in law and in use.

What has not changed, in a table

No pensioner's payment changes as a result of what was published. The full new State Pension remains 241.30 pounds a week following the April 2026 rise of 4.8 percent. The April 2027 rise has not been set, and the adjusted triple lock exists only as a modelled alternative in a published analysis. The commitment to uprate on the basis of the Triple Lock throughout this parliament is stated in the publication itself, and the government's position is that it holds until the next general election. What has changed is the amount of information in public view, not the rules that determine payments.

How the triple lock actually works

The triple lock raises the basic and new State Pension each April by the highest of September CPI inflation, average earnings growth measured between May and July, or 2.5 percent. The mechanism was introduced by the coalition government in 2010 and first applied to the state pension in 2011. It applies to the basic and new State Pension. Additional State Pension, commonly known as SERPS, is uprated under different rules, which is a common misunderstanding. If you receive SERPS on top of the basic or new State Pension, that element does not move by the same three-way comparison.

The triple lock has been suspended once, for the April 2022 uprating, when pandemic-distorted earnings growth of around 8.3 percent was excluded by law and replaced for that year with a comparison of CPI or 2.5 percent. In April 2026 the triple lock delivered a 4.8 percent rise, taking the full new State Pension to 241.30 pounds a week. Provisional data point to an earnings-led rise of about 3.9 percent for April 2027, which would take the full new State Pension to roughly 250.71 pounds a week. The ONS publishes the September 2026 CPI figure on 21 October 2026, which determines whether earnings growth or inflation is the higher of the three measures. The Budget is on 28 October 2026.

The argument on both sides

Defenders of the triple lock argue that the mechanism protects pensioner incomes against both inflation and wage growth, and that it has lifted the state pension relative to earnings. On this account, the three-way comparison ensures that the state pension does not fall behind whichever of prices or wages is rising faster, and the 2.5 percent floor provides a minimum increase when both are low. The April 2026 rise of 4.8 percent, which took the full new State Pension to 241.30 pounds a week, is cited as an example of the mechanism delivering an increase in line with the highest of the three measures.

Critics of the triple lock have argued that it has increased the cost of the state pension and creates uncertainty over future public spending. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has highlighted the growing value of the state pension alongside frozen tax thresholds. The DWP analysis itself notes that the Triple Lock and the adjusted Triple Lock respond differently to movements in earnings and inflation, which can compound over time and affect projected expenditure. The government has previously said it would ensure that someone whose only income is the full new State Pension does not become liable for income tax during this parliament. These are the cases as made; the publication does not adjudicate between them, and neither does this report.

What to watch next

Three dates matter. The ONS publishes the September 2026 CPI figure on 21 October 2026, which determines whether earnings growth or inflation is the higher of the three measures for the April 2027 uprating. The Budget is on 28 October 2026. The uprating announcement follows, and it is that announcement, not the modelling or the conference speech, that sets the April 2027 rise. Until then, the position for pensioners is unchanged: the full new State Pension is 241.30 pounds a week, and the commitment to uprate on the basis of the Triple Lock throughout this parliament is stated in the publication and maintained by the government until the next general election.

For background on how the mechanism has applied in previous years, see the KT state pension guide. For the fiscal context around the 28 October 2026 Budget, see the Budget tracker. Both are updated as the dates above approach. The adjusted triple lock remains a modelled alternative in a published analysis, with no announcement attached to it, and no pensioner's payment changes as a result of what was published on 29 September 2026.

Source: DWP: State Pension uprating analysis 2026.

Related coverage on Kael Tripton: Triple lock: what Tuesday's earnings figure means for the 2027 state pension, State pension 2027 rise: how the triple lock sets next April's increase and what the forecasts show, UK pensioner poverty: the numbers and what the triple lock does, Triple Lock Stays: What the New Government Means for Your Pension, Growth speech: what it signals for the October Budget.

Frequently asked questions

Has the triple lock been changed?

No. The DWP publication states that the government has committed to uprating on the basis of the Triple Lock throughout this parliament, and the government's position is that the commitment holds until the next general election. The adjusted triple lock appears only as a modelled alternative in the published analysis, with no announcement attached to it.

What is the full new State Pension now?

Following the April 2026 rise of 4.8 percent, the full new State Pension is 241.30 pounds a week.

What will the April 2027 rise be?

It has not been set. Provisional data point to an earnings-led rise of about 3.9 percent, which would take the full new State Pension to roughly 250.71 pounds a week. The ONS publishes the September 2026 CPI figure on 21 October 2026, which determines whether earnings growth or inflation is the higher of the three measures, and the uprating announcement follows the Budget on 28 October 2026.

Does the triple lock apply to SERPS?

No. The triple lock applies to the basic and new State Pension. Additional State Pension, commonly known as SERPS, is uprated under different rules, which is a common misunderstanding.

Has the triple lock ever been suspended?

Yes, once, for the April 2022 uprating, when pandemic-distorted earnings growth of around 8.3 percent was excluded by law and replaced for that year with a comparison of CPI or 2.5 percent.