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KT NEWS & ANALYSIS Pensions and Retirement News |
The triple lock is the government policy that guarantees the state pension rises each April by whichever is highest: CPI inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5%. In April 2026, earnings growth of 4.8% was the highest of the three measures, raising the full new state pension from £230.25 to £241.30 per week. At £12,547 per year, the state pension now sits just £23 below the income tax personal allowance of £12,570, which has been frozen since 2021/22 and is due to remain frozen until at least 2027/28. If the triple lock delivers any increase above 0.2% in April 2027, pensioners whose only income is the state pension will become liable for income tax for the first time.
What the triple lock is and how it works
The triple lock was introduced in April 2011 by the coalition government as a guarantee that the state pension would not lose value in real terms. It requires the DWP to uprate both the new state pension and the basic state pension each April by the highest of three comparators: CPI inflation as measured by the ONS using the September figure published the previous October; average earnings growth measured by the ONS Average Weekly Earnings statistic covering the period May to July, published the following October; or a minimum floor of 2.5% that applies in years when both inflation and earnings growth are very low.
The mechanics work on a fixed annual cycle. The September CPI figure is published in October. The May to July earnings growth figure is also published in October. DWP compares the two against the 2.5% floor, takes the highest, and the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions announces the uprating figure in November, ahead of the April implementation date. This means the uprating percentage for a given tax year is known roughly five months before it takes effect.
The triple lock applies to the full rate of the new state pension and to the full rate of the basic state pension. It also applies to the Standard Minimum Guarantee within Pension Credit, the means-tested top-up for pensioners on lower incomes. Not every pensioner receives the full rate. Those with incomplete National Insurance records receive a reduced amount, and those who reached state pension age before 6 April 2016 receive the basic state pension rather than the new state pension, though with potential additional state pension entitlement from SERPS or S2P contributions made before 2016.
The 2026/27 rates in full
The April 2026 uprating was driven by the earnings measure. The ONS Average Weekly Earnings figure for the May to July 2025 period showed private sector regular pay growth of 4.8%. This compared to September 2025 CPI inflation of 1.7% and the 2.5% floor. Earnings won by a clear margin.
The key rates from 6 April 2026 are as follows. The full new state pension increased from £230.25 to £241.30 per week, equivalent to £12,547.60 per year. The full basic state pension increased from £176.45 to £184.90 per week, equivalent to £9,614.80 per year. The Standard Minimum Guarantee in Pension Credit increased by the same 4.8% to £238.00 per week for a single pensioner and £363.25 per week for a couple. The DWP estimates that this year's uprating adds £6 billion to spending on state pensions and pensioner benefits, with total uprating costs across all benefits reaching £11 billion in 2026/27.
The 4.8% increase also represents the highest uprating in a non-crisis year since the triple lock's introduction. The 10.1% increase in 2022/23 was driven by CPI inflation at its post-pandemic peak. The 8.5% increases in 2023/24 and 2024/25 were both earnings-driven but reflected a period of elevated wage growth. The 4.8% figure for 2026/27 is closer to the long-run average but remains well above the 2.5% floor.
The frozen personal allowance problem
The most significant policy tension created by the 2026/27 uprating is the proximity of the new state pension to the income tax personal allowance. The personal allowance has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021/22 under a government decision to hold it at that level until at least 2027/28. At £12,547 per year, the full new state pension now sits only £23 below the threshold at which income tax becomes payable.
The arithmetic is straightforward. If the triple lock delivers an increase of more than £23 in April 2027, the annual state pension will exceed £12,570 and pensioners whose only income is the state pension will become liable for income tax on the excess. On a 4.8% increase the gap would have widened to roughly £570; but on any increase, even the 2.5% minimum floor, the state pension would rise by approximately £314, pushing it to £12,861 and making the personal allowance breach certain unless the allowance is unfrozen in the interim.
The government has confirmed that pensioners will not face an administrative burden from this situation. Where the state pension is a person's only income and marginally exceeds the personal allowance, HMRC will collect the small amount of income tax due by adjusting the tax code rather than requiring a self-assessment return. Pensioners with other income sources, such as a private pension or part-time earnings, will have their state pension taken into account in their overall tax calculation.
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KEY POINT: MOST PENSIONERS NOT AFFECTED IN 2026/27 In 2026/27, the full new state pension remains £23 below the personal allowance. Pensioners whose only income is the state pension pay no income tax this year. The tax liability risk applies from April 2027 onward if the triple lock delivers any increase and the personal allowance remains frozen. |
The 2022/23 suspension and what it means
The triple lock has operated in every year since its introduction in April 2011 with one exception. In 2022/23, the earnings element was suspended. The Average Weekly Earnings figure for May to July 2021 showed growth of 8.3%, but this was widely understood to be a statistical distortion caused by large numbers of workers returning from furlough, which inflated the year-on-year comparison artificially. The government suspended the earnings element for that year and applied CPI inflation of 3.1% instead, which was the highest of the remaining two comparators.
The following year, 2023/24, saw the first triple lock uprating that used a genuine earnings figure, and the state pension rose by 10.1% as CPI, not earnings, was the highest comparator at that point. The suspension in 2022/23 remains a precedent for the possibility of future interventions in years where the earnings figure appears distorted.
State pension age changes running in parallel
Alongside the annual uprating, the state pension age is rising from 66 to 67 between April 2026 and April 2028. This means that people born between 6 April 1960 and 5 March 1961 have a state pension age somewhere between 66 and 67, depending on their exact date of birth. People born from 6 March 1961 onward will have a state pension age of 67. The rise to 68 is currently scheduled between April 2044 and April 2046, though the government has commissioned an independent review of the state pension age and any changes to that timetable would be subject to announcement.
The combination of the triple lock and a rising state pension age creates what analysts sometimes describe as a structural tension. The triple lock increases the generosity of the benefit for those who receive it, while the rising state pension age delays the point at which people can access it. The OBR has projected that the annual cost of the triple lock will reach £15.5 billion by 2030, driven primarily by the compounding effect of above-inflation increases over many years.
Pension Credit and the unclaimed billions
Pension Credit is the means-tested supplement for pensioners on lower incomes. The Standard Minimum Guarantee within Pension Credit guarantees a minimum weekly income of £238.00 for a single pensioner and £363.25 for a couple from April 2026, both uprated by the same 4.8% as the state pension. Pension Credit also unlocks access to other means-tested support including Council Tax Reduction, free TV licence for those aged 75 and over, and cold weather payments.
An estimated £3 billion per year in Pension Credit goes unclaimed. The DWP estimates that around 38% of pensioners eligible for Pension Credit do not claim it, often because they are unaware they qualify or believe the application process is too complex. Pensioners who believe their income is low enough to qualify can check eligibility and apply through GOV.UK or by calling the Pension Credit claim line on 0800 99 1234.
What to do if you are approaching state pension age
Anyone within four months of their state pension age should receive a letter from DWP inviting them to claim their state pension. If no letter arrives, the state pension can be claimed online at GOV.UK, by phone through the Pension Service on 0800 731 7898, or by completing a BR1 form and posting it to the local Pension Centre. The state pension does not start automatically and must be actively claimed.
It is also possible to defer claiming the state pension beyond state pension age. Deferring increases the eventual weekly payment. For the new state pension, the increase for deferring is 1% for every nine weeks deferred, equivalent to roughly 5.8% per year of deferral. For someone in good health who expects to live well into their eighties, deferral can increase lifetime income from the state pension, though the calculation depends heavily on individual life expectancy and other income sources. The DWP state pension forecast, available at GOV.UK, shows an individual's projected state pension based on their National Insurance record.
Frequently asked questions
What is the state pension amount in 2026/27?
The full new state pension is £241.30 per week from 6 April 2026, equivalent to £12,547.60 per year. The full basic state pension, for those who reached state pension age before April 2016, is £184.90 per week, equivalent to £9,614.80 per year.
What drove the 4.8% increase in April 2026?
Average earnings growth of 4.8%, measured by the ONS Average Weekly Earnings statistic for the May to July 2025 period, was the highest of the three triple lock comparators. It exceeded September 2025 CPI inflation of 1.7% and the 2.5% minimum floor.
Will pensioners pay income tax on the state pension from April 2027?
If the personal allowance remains frozen at £12,570 and the triple lock delivers any increase in April 2027, the annual state pension will exceed the personal allowance and pensioners whose only income is the state pension will become liable for a small amount of income tax on the excess. HMRC has confirmed it will collect this through PAYE adjustments rather than self-assessment returns for those without other significant income sources.
Does the triple lock apply to Pension Credit?
Yes. The Standard Minimum Guarantee in Pension Credit is uprated by the same percentage as the state pension under the triple lock. From April 2026, it is £238.00 per week for a single pensioner and £363.25 for a couple.
What is the state pension age in 2026?
The state pension age is rising from 66 to 67 between April 2026 and April 2028. People born between 6 April 1960 and 5 March 1961 have transitional state pension ages between 66 and 67. Check your personal state pension age using the GOV.UK checker.
Can the triple lock be suspended or abolished?
The triple lock is a government policy commitment, not a statutory right. It was suspended in 2022/23 when the earnings element produced an artificially inflated figure. All major political parties committed to maintain the triple lock for the current Parliament. Whether it continues beyond that Parliament is subject to future political decisions.
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DISCLAIMER This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal or regulatory advice. Kaeltripton.com is an independent editorial publisher and is not regulated by the FCA. Always verify information directly with primary sources before making financial decisions. |
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