UK borrowing hits £77.3bn, £8.1bn above OBR forecast

What the August figures show

Public sector net borrowing was £18.3 billion in August 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 22 September 2026. That was £2.9 billion more than in August 2025. Borrowing is the difference between what the public sector spends and what it receives in income, such as taxes and other receipts. When spending exceeds income, the government borrows to cover the gap. The August figure is a single month, but it feeds directly into the year to date and into the comparison with the official forecast.

The monthly number is one input into a wider picture. The ONS also reported that self-assessed Income Tax receipts in July and August 2026 combined were £18.6 billion, £1.9 billion more than in the same period last year. That shows some receipts are running ahead of last year, even as borrowing for the month rose. The current budget deficit, which covers day-to-day public sector activities, was £12.4 billion in August 2026. In the financial year to August 2026, the current budget deficit was £51.9 billion, £2.9 billion (5.3%) less than in the same period last year, but £4.8 billion above the OBR forecast. These figures are provisional and can be revised.

Year to date against the forecast

Borrowing was £77.3 billion in the financial year to August 2026. That was £2.2 billion (2.7%) less than in the same period last year, but £8.1 billion above the OBR forecast. The comparison forecast is the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook of March 2026 and its monthly profiles. The ONS bulletin stated that borrowing in the financial year to August 2026 was below the same period last year, but higher than the official government forecast. Both statements can be true at once: borrowing can fall year on year and still overshoot the path the forecaster expected.

The size of the overshoot has widened sharply in one month. In the financial year to July 2026, borrowing was £56.7 billion, £2.3 billion above the OBR forecast, according to ONS figures published on 21 August 2026. By the year to August, the gap was £8.1 billion. That is an increase of £5.8 billion in the forecast gap in a single month. Borrowing in the financial year to August 2026 was 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the size of the economy. That was 0.2 percentage points lower than in the same period a year earlier, and the 10th-lowest April to August period since comparable monthly records began in 1993.

Debt just below 3 trillion pounds

Public sector net debt, which is the amount owed to the UK private sector and overseas less liquid assets, was provisionally estimated at £2,985.5 billion at the end of August 2026. That is just below £3 trillion, and £78.5 billion more than a year earlier. Debt at the end of August 2026 was equivalent to 93.8% of GDP, 1.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier and at levels last seen in the early 1960s. The ONS bulletin stated that debt remained just below £3 trillion at the end of August 2026, although as a share of the economy it was lower than a year earlier.

A wider balance sheet measure, public sector net financial liabilities, was provisionally estimated at £2,620.4 billion at the end of August 2026, £108.7 billion more than a year earlier. Net financial liabilities were 82.3% of GDP at the end of August 2026, 0.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 11.5 percentage points lower than net debt, as the additional financial assets included exceed the additional financial liabilities. For context, net debt was 94.1% of GDP at the end of July 2026, according to ONS figures published on 21 August 2026. The government's fiscal targets are a current budget surplus and falling public sector net financial liabilities as a share of GDP by the financial year ending March 2030.

Why it matters before the 28 October Budget

The government has confirmed the 2026 Budget will be on Wednesday 28 October. The OBR will publish updated fiscal forecasts alongside it. The forecast gap in the year to August is measured against the OBR's March 2026 profiles, not against the October forecasts, which are not yet published. A gap against the March forecast does not automatically carry into the October forecast, because the OBR will update its assumptions for the economy, receipts and spending. Even so, a larger overshoot against the existing profile reduces the headroom the Chancellor has against the fiscal rules if the OBR's underlying judgements are broadly unchanged.

Headroom is the margin between the expected position and the target. The government's targets are a current budget surplus and falling public sector net financial liabilities as a share of GDP by the financial year ending March 2030. A smaller margin makes the arithmetic tighter. The ONS bulletin noted that borrowing in the financial year to August 2026 was below the same period last year, but higher than the official government forecast. That combination frames the choice ahead of 28 October: receipts are up on last year in some areas, yet the year to date is running above the forecast path. For more on what is being considered before the Budget, see UK wealth tax proposals.

What to watch next

The next scheduled event is the OBR's October forecast, published alongside the Budget on 28 October 2026. That forecast will set out updated monthly profiles for borrowing, debt and the fiscal targets. Until then, the £8.1 billion gap in the year to August is measured against the March 2026 forecast. The ONS will also continue to publish monthly public sector finances releases, which provide the outturn data that feed into the forecast comparisons. Each release updates the year to date and can change the size of the gap against the March profiles.

ONS estimates for recent months are provisional and subject to revision. That applies to the August borrowing figure, the year to date, and the debt estimates. Revisions can move the numbers in either direction, so the £8.1 billion gap may change as more data become available. The key dates are the ONS monthly releases and the OBR's October forecast. The figures in this article are as published by the ONS on 22 September 2026 and 21 August 2026, and the comparison forecast is the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook of March 2026 and its monthly profiles.

Source: ONS: Public sector finances, UK: August 2026.

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Frequently asked questions

How much did the UK government borrow in August 2026?

Public sector net borrowing was £18.3 billion in August 2026, up £2.9 billion on August 2025, according to the ONS on 22 September 2026.

How much has the government borrowed so far this financial year?

Borrowing was £77.3 billion in the financial year to August 2026. That was £2.2 billion (2.7%) less than in the same period last year but £8.1 billion above the OBR forecast.

How does the gap compare with the previous month?

In the financial year to July 2026, borrowing was £56.7 billion, £2.3 billion above the OBR forecast. By the year to August, the gap was £8.1 billion, so the overshoot widened by £5.8 billion in one month.

What is the national debt?

Public sector net debt was provisionally estimated at £2,985.5 billion at the end of August 2026, just below £3 trillion. That was 93.8% of GDP, 1.3 percentage points lower than a year earlier.

When is the Budget and when will the OBR publish new forecasts?

The 2026 Budget will be on Wednesday 28 October. The OBR will publish updated fiscal forecasts alongside it.