Triple lock: what Tuesday's earnings figure means for the 2027 state pension

How the triple lock sets next April's increase

The triple lock guarantees that the state pension rises each April by the highest of three measures: the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for September, average earnings growth for May to July, or 2.5 per cent. For the April 2027 uprating, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the average weekly earnings figure on 15 September 2026. The CPI figure for September is released in October. The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions then confirms the increase during the autumn statement period, and the new rate applies from April 2027.

The mechanism applies to both the new state pension and the basic state pension. Additional state pension and deferral increments rise only by CPI, as set out on GOV.UK.

What the IFS analysis says about cost

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), state pension spending is expected to reach £154bn in 2026-27. The IFS estimates that the triple lock has added around £16bn a year compared with an earnings-only uprating since 2010. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the added cost at £600m a year by 2029-30. The IFS notes that the ratchet effect locks in increases permanently, meaning higher rises become the new baseline.

In the long run, the IFS projects that keeping the triple lock would add around £20bn a year by 2050, with a plausible range of £5bn to £40bn. Higher volatility in earnings or inflation increases the expected cost. Jonathan Cribb, IFS deputy director, described the cost as 'substantial but very uncertain'.

The political position

The government has a manifesto commitment to keep the triple lock for this parliament, and no legislative timetable has been announced to change it. The British Chambers of Commerce has called for the policy to be scrapped, as reported. The IFS argues that scrapping the triple lock would raise relatively little in the short term, citing around £3.3bn over two years. The policy remains a point of political debate, but no immediate change is planned.

What it means for pensioners and those approaching state pension age

The full new state pension is currently £241.30 a week, or £12,548 a year. To illustrate possible outcomes, if the April 2027 increase were 2.5 per cent, the weekly rate would rise by £6.03 to £247.33, adding £313.56 a year. If it were 3.5 per cent, the rise would be £8.45 a week, taking the annual amount to £12,987.18. A 4.5 per cent rise would add £10.86 a week, resulting in an annual pension of £13,112.66. These are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.

The personal allowance is frozen at £12,570, which is only £22 above the full state pension. Pensioners with other income, such as private pensions or savings, may therefore pay income tax on part of their state pension.

Related coverage: HMRC pension top-up for low earners and the wider Money guides.

Dates to watch

Key dates for the April 2027 uprating: the ONS labour market release on 15 September 2026, the CPI release in October, the Autumn Budget, and the uprating itself in April 2027. For more context, see the site's existing state pension and Budget 2026 coverage.

Frequently asked questions

What is the state pension triple lock?

The triple lock is a government policy that guarantees the state pension increases each year by the highest of three measures: average earnings growth, inflation (as measured by the Consumer Prices Index), or 2.5 per cent. It was introduced in 2010 to ensure the pension keeps pace with the cost of living and earnings. The policy applies to the basic and new state pension, and the increase is announced in the autumn and takes effect the following April.

How much is the full new state pension in 2026-27?

The full new state pension is £241.30 a week, which amounts to £12,548 a year. This rate applies from April 2026, following a 4.8 per cent increase driven by earnings growth. The amount a person receives depends on their National Insurance record, with most people needing 35 qualifying years to get the full amount. Those with fewer years may receive less, while those with additional state pension or protected payments may get more.

When will the April 2027 state pension increase be decided?

The April 2027 increase will be decided in the autumn of 2026. The key dates are: the ONS publishes average earnings growth for May to July 2026 on 15 September 2026; the CPI figure for September is released in October; and the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions confirms the uprating during the autumn statement period. The highest of the three measures (earnings, CPI, or 2.5 per cent) will determine the increase, which takes effect from April 2027.

How much does the triple lock cost?

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the triple lock has added around £16bn a year to state pension spending compared with an earnings-only uprating since 2010. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the added cost will be £600m a year by 2029-30. In the long run, the IFS projects the policy could add around £20bn a year by 2050, with a plausible range of £5bn to £40bn. The cost is uncertain and depends on future earnings and inflation.

Is the government planning to scrap the triple lock?

No immediate plans have been announced. The government has a manifesto commitment to keep the triple lock for this parliament, and no legislative timetable has been set to change it. The British Chambers of Commerce has called for the policy to be scrapped, but the government has not indicated any intention to do so. The IFS notes that scrapping it would raise relatively little in the short term, around £3.3bn over two years, but the policy remains a topic of political debate.