Last reviewed: 1 June 2026
The Office for National Statistics published April 2026 consumer price data on 21 May 2026. The headline Consumer Prices Index rose by 2.8 percent in the 12 months to April, down from 3.3 percent in March. CPI including owner-occupied housing (CPIH) rose by 3.0 percent, down from 3.4 percent. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.7 percent in April 2026 compared with a 1.2 percent rise in April 2025.
- CPI annual rate: 2.8 percent in April 2026 (down from 3.3 percent in March)
- CPIH annual rate: 3.0 percent (down from 3.4 percent)
- Core CPI (excluding energy and food): 2.5 percent, lowest since July 2021
- Food price inflation: 3.0 percent (down from 3.7 percent)
- Bank of England April projection: CPI 3.1 percent in Q2, 3.3 percent in Q3 2026
- Ofgem energy price cap fell 7 percent on 1 April; rises 13 percent on 1 July
What drove the April fall
The biggest downward contribution came from housing and household services, where the 12-month rate fell to 3.0 percent in April from 4.3 percent in March. Electricity prices were 8.4 percent lower than a year earlier following the April Ofgem price cap reduction. Food price inflation also eased to 3.0 percent. These downward effects were partially offset by a sharp rise in motor fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict.
Why the Bank still expects inflation to climb back
The Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report sets out a near-term inflation profile 1.4 percentage points higher than the February forecast. CPI is projected at 3.1 percent in Q2, 3.3 percent in Q3 and is expected to rise further in Q4 before easing back towards the 2 percent target during 2027. The majority of the upward revision reflects a larger direct contribution from energy costs, with knock-on effects as firms pass higher input costs through supply chains.
What this means for households
The April fall masks rising pressure on specific categories. Motor fuel prices have moved up sharply, with average petrol pump prices around 159p per litre and diesel around 184p per litre in late May. The Ofgem energy price cap rises 13 percent from 1 July, adding around £221 a year to a typical dual-fuel direct debit bill. Wage growth at around 4.8 percent in the latest data is still running above headline CPI, leaving real wages modestly positive.
What it means for interest rates
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 to 1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent on 30 April. With the April CPI release coming in below the Bank's own near-term path, markets did not move materially towards expecting a cut at the next meeting on 18 June. Governor Andrew Bailey signalled on 29 May that the Bank is in no rush to act while the outcome of the Iran conflict and its effect on energy prices remains uncertain.
What to watch next
The May CPI release lands on 18 June, the same day as the next MPC decision. The Bank's full updated forecast is due alongside the August MPC meeting. Cornwall Insight forecasts the energy price cap will rise a further 2 percent in Q4 2026 before easing in early 2027 if wholesale gas markets stabilise, but those forecasts depend on the trajectory of the Middle East conflict.
FAQs
What is the difference between CPI and CPIH?
CPIH includes owner-occupier housing costs and council tax. It is the ONS's most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation. CPI is the headline figure used for the Bank of England's 2 percent target.
Why is core inflation different to headline CPI?
Core CPI excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, which are the most volatile components. It gives a clearer view of underlying domestic price pressures. April core CPI was 2.5 percent, the lowest since July 2021.
When is the next inflation release?
The next ONS Consumer Prices release covers May 2026 data and is published on 18 June 2026 at 7am.
Will inflation fall back to 2 percent in 2026?
The Bank of England's central projection is for CPI to rise above 3 percent over Q3 and Q4 2026 before easing back towards target during 2027. The forecast is conditional on energy prices not rising further.
