Why Has My CETV Fallen? UK Transfer Values in 2026

If you requested a transfer value a few years ago and asked again recently, you may have been surprised by how much smaller the figure is. You have not done anything wrong, and your pension itself has not shrunk. The fall reflects a change in financial conditions, chiefly the rise in gilt yields since 2022.

In short

• CETVs move in the opposite direction to gilt yields.
• Gilt yields rose sharply from 2022, so transfer values fell across the market.
• A lower CETV does not mean your guaranteed pension is worth less to you.
• The income the scheme will pay you is unchanged; only the buy-out figure has moved.
• Values can recover if gilt yields fall again, but the timing is unpredictable.

The link between gilt yields and transfer values

A defined benefit scheme works out how much money it would need to invest today to fund the income it has promised you. To do that it uses a discount rate based on the yield available on UK government bonds, known as gilts. When gilt yields are low, the scheme cannot earn much on safe assets, so it needs to set aside a large sum, and your CETV is high. When gilt yields rise, the same future income can be funded with a smaller sum today, so your CETV falls. The relationship is inverse and it is the single biggest driver of transfer values.

What changed after 2022

Through 2020 and 2021 gilt yields were exceptionally low and transfer values reached unusually high levels, with some multiples of thirty to forty times the annual pension. From 2022 yields climbed as interest rates rose to combat inflation. As yields normalised, transfer values fell back, in many cases substantially. The values seen at the peak were a product of extraordinary conditions rather than a baseline to expect again.

What a lower CETV actually means for you

It is easy to read a smaller number as a loss, but the comparison is not straightforward. Your defined benefit pension still pays the same guaranteed, usually inflation-linked income for life. What has fallen is the price the scheme places on buying that promise out. For someone who values the certainty of a guaranteed income, a lower CETV simply makes transferring less attractive, which is not the same as being worse off.

Could values recover?

Because CETVs track gilt yields, they would tend to rise again if yields fell. Nobody can reliably predict the path of yields, so treating a future recovery as a plan is risky. If you do receive a quote you want to act on, remember it is guaranteed for only three months before it must be recalculated at the yields applying on the new date.

FAQ

Why has my pension transfer value gone down?

Almost always because gilt yields have risen. Transfer values move inversely to gilt yields, so the rise in yields since 2022 has reduced CETVs across the market.

Has my actual pension been cut?

No. The income your defined benefit scheme will pay is unchanged. Only the capital value placed on buying it out has fallen.

Will my CETV go back up?

It could, if gilt yields fall again, because the two move in opposite directions. The path of yields cannot be predicted, so a recovery is not something to rely on.

Should I transfer now before it falls further?

Timing a transfer around expected yield movements is speculative. Whether to transfer at all is a regulated decision that, for values over £30,000, requires advice from a pension transfer specialist.

How long is the lower value guaranteed?

Any quoted CETV is guaranteed for three months. After that the scheme recalculates at the prevailing gilt yields.