Comparing four 2026 UKHSA ambulance bulletins across January, March, May and July, three categories, injuries, allergic reactions and collapsed with unknown problem, were rated above baseline in every single bulletin, while five others, including difficulty breathing and cardiac or respiratory arrest, were never above baseline in any of the four. Heat-related calls turned above baseline this week during an amber heat-health alert.
TL;DR · LAST REVIEWED 17 July 2026
- Injuries, allergic reactions and collapsed with unknown problem were rated above baseline in all 4 UKHSA ambulance bulletins compared, spanning January to July 2026.
- Difficulty breathing, cardiac or respiratory arrest, headache, unconscious or passing out and overdose or poisoning were never above baseline in any of the 4.
- Impact of heat or cold turned above baseline and increasing in the week 28 bulletin (6-12 July), during an amber heat-health alert.
- Cardiac or respiratory arrest and unconscious or passing out were also rated increasing the same week.
- UKHSA does not publish exact call totals in these bulletins; comparisons here use the official published trend and baseline ratings only.
KEY FACTS
- UKHSA's ambulance syndromic surveillance bulletin for week 28 2026 (data to 12 July) recorded an amber heat-health alert and rated 'impact of heat or cold' calls as increasing and above baseline.
- 'Injuries', 'allergic reactions' and 'collapsed with unknown problem' were rated above baseline in all 4 bulletins compared (weeks 1, 12, 18 and 28 of 2026), the only indicators to be above baseline every time.
- 'Difficulty breathing', 'cardiac or respiratory arrest', 'headache', 'unconscious or passing out' and 'overdose or ingestion or poisoning' were never rated above baseline in any of the 4 bulletins.
- 'Cardiac or respiratory arrest' and 'unconscious or passing out' were both rated increasing in the week 28 bulletin, alongside the heat-related rise.
- 'Chest pain' was above baseline in 3 of the 4 bulletins compared, similar to baseline only in the January bulletin.
- UKHSA says its syndromic surveillance data should be used to assess trends against each indicator's own historical baseline, not to estimate total case numbers.
UKHSA explicitly advises against using this data to estimate total case numbers or compare absolute call volumes between different indicators. This piece compares the official published trend and baseline ratings across 4 bulletins spanning 2026, which UKHSA's own guidance supports, rather than exact call counts, which these bulletins do not publish.
What this week's bulletin shows
UKHSA's ambulance syndromic surveillance bulletin for week 28 2026, covering 6 to 12 July, recorded an amber heat-health alert across England during the reporting week. The bulletin's key messages state that emergency ambulance calls for impact of heat increased in line with the alert, alongside increases in calls for difficulty breathing, cardiac or respiratory arrest, unconscious or passing out, collapsed with unknown problem, and injuries.
Impact of heat or cold moved from similar to baseline in the May 2026 bulletin to increasing and above baseline in the week 28 bulletin, one of the clearest single-week changes in the four bulletins compared here. Cardiac or respiratory arrest and unconscious or passing out both also turned increasing the same week, having shown no clear trend or been decreasing in earlier 2026 bulletins.
Comparing four bulletins across the year
Comparing UKHSA's ambulance bulletins for weeks 1, 12, 18 and 28 of 2026, covering January, March, May and July, shows how the same 10 syndromic indicators moved against their own historical baselines across the year. Each bulletin rates every indicator as increasing, decreasing or showing no trend, and as above, below or similar to baseline, based on 7-day moving averages compared with baselines built from data since January 2019.
| Indicator | Wk 1 (Jan) | Wk 12 (Mar) | Wk 18 (May) | Wk 28 (Jul) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | Above | Above | Above | Above |
| Allergic reactions | Above | Above | Above | Above |
| Collapsed, unknown problem | Above | Above | Above | Above |
| Chest pain | Similar | Above | Above | Above |
| Impact of heat or cold | Above | Below | Similar | Above |
| Overdose or poisoning | Below | Similar | Similar | Similar |
| Difficulty breathing | Similar | Similar | Similar | Similar |
| Cardiac or respiratory arrest | Below | Below | Below | Similar |
| Unconscious or passing out | Below | Below | Below | Similar |
| Headache | Below | Similar | Below | Below |
Level rating (above, below or similar to expected seasonal baseline) for each of the 10 UKHSA ambulance syndromic indicators, England, compiled from the week 1, 12, 18 and 28 bulletins of 2026. Source: UKHSA.
The categories that never fall, and never rise
Three indicators, injuries, allergic reactions and collapsed with unknown problem, were rated above baseline in every one of the four bulletins compared, the only categories to be above baseline every single time across January, March, May and July 2026. None of the four bulletins rated any of these three as below baseline at any point.
At the other end, five indicators, difficulty breathing, cardiac or respiratory arrest, headache, unconscious or passing out and overdose or ingestion or poisoning, were never rated above baseline in any of the four bulletins. Difficulty breathing was rated similar to baseline in all four; the other four alternated between below baseline and similar to baseline, without ever crossing into above baseline territory.
What changed this week
Impact of heat or cold and chest pain both moved into above-baseline territory during the period covered by these bulletins. Chest pain, similar to baseline in January, was rated above baseline in March, May and July. Impact of heat or cold moved between above, below and similar to baseline across the first three bulletins before turning above baseline again in week 28, alongside the amber heat-health alert.
Cardiac or respiratory arrest and unconscious or passing out, both consistently below baseline in the January, March and May bulletins, moved to similar to baseline in week 28, the first bulletin of the four in which neither was rated below baseline.
What UKHSA's data can and can't tell you
UKHSA is explicit that this syndromic surveillance data should be used to assess current trends and levels against historical baselines, and to compare trends between age groups or areas, but should not be used to estimate the total burden or number of cases of a condition, or to compare absolute call volumes between different indicators. The bulletins do not publish exact weekly or daily call totals in text form.
The baselines used to assess whether an indicator is above, below or similar to expected levels were last remodelled in May 2023, using historical data from January 2019, and exclude data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. Up to 10 ambulance trusts across England submit data to the system, though Yorkshire Ambulance Service data was not available for inclusion in any of the four bulletins examined here.
RELATED GUIDES
DISCLAIMER
This article is editorial information, not financial advice. Kael Tripton Ltd is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Figures were correct at the last review date shown above; verify current rates and rules with the primary sources listed below before acting.
Frequently asked questions
Which type of 999 call is most common in England?
UKHSA's bulletins don't publish exact call totals, but injuries, allergic reactions and collapsed with unknown problem were the only 3 of the 10 tracked categories rated above baseline in every one of the 4 bulletins compared, spanning January to July 2026.
Did heat-related ambulance calls really increase during this week's heatwave?
Yes. UKHSA's week 28 2026 bulletin rates impact of heat or cold calls as increasing and above baseline, coinciding with an amber heat-health alert covering 6 to 12 July.
Does this data show the exact number of ambulance calls each day?
No. UKHSA publishes daily call charts and a trend/level rating for each indicator in these bulletins, but does not publish exact weekly totals, and says the data should not be used to estimate total case numbers.
Are cardiac arrest calls linked to the heatwave too?
UKHSA's week 28 bulletin rates cardiac or respiratory arrest as increasing, moving from below baseline in the previous 3 bulletins compared to similar to baseline, alongside a rise in unconscious or passing out calls. The bulletin does not state a specific cause.
Which ambulance trusts are included in this data?
Up to 10 ambulance trusts across England, though Yorkshire Ambulance Service data was not available for inclusion in the 4 bulletins examined here.
SOURCES
