| TL;DR: The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June 2026. One member voted to raise the rate to 4%. UK inflation stood at 2.8% in May 2026. Tracker and SVR mortgage holders see no immediate change. The outlook for cuts later in 2026 remains uncertain, with the Bank warning of renewed inflation risks. |
Last reviewed: 19 June 2026
MPC votes 8-1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% as inflation remains above target and the outlook for the second half of 2026 stays uncertain.
The MPC decision
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its meeting on 18 June 2026. The vote was 8-1, with one member voting to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. No member voted for a cut.
The decision was widely anticipated. All 65 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll ahead of the meeting expected no change, although there was no consensus on what might happen in subsequent months.
What the Bank said about inflation
UK CPI inflation fell to 2.8% in April 2026, helped by a reduction in the household energy price cap, and remained at 2.8% in May 2026. The Bank's target is 2%. Despite the recent fall, the Bank has continued to flag upside risks, noting that the impact of the early-2026 energy price shock on global supply chains had not fully worked through.
Governor Andrew Bailey indicated in late May 2026 that the Bank was in no rush to raise rates while the outcome of the Iran conflict remained uncertain and UK growth stayed weak. However, the MPC's deliberations have flagged that up to six rate rises could occur in a worst-case scenario over the 12 months ahead.
What this means for mortgage borrowers
Tracker mortgage holders and those on a lender's standard variable rate (SVR) see no immediate change in monthly repayments as a result of the hold decision. Those on tracker products linked directly to Bank Rate will only see movement if the MPC changes the rate at a future meeting.
Fixed-rate mortgage pricing is driven by swap rates, not the Bank Rate decision itself, which is why several major lenders cut fixed rates in June 2026 even as the MPC held. Barclays, NatWest, Santander, Halifax and others have all reduced selected fixed rates during June following an easing in swap rates.
Remaining MPC dates in 2026
The MPC meets approximately every six weeks. Following the 18 June decision, subsequent meetings are scheduled for later in the summer and autumn of 2026. Market pricing implied by SONIA futures currently points to gradual easing over 2026-27, though the path will depend on inflation and energy price developments.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bank of England base rate as of June 2026?
The Bank Rate is 3.75%, unchanged since the December 2025 meeting. The rate was cut four times during 2025, bringing it down from 4.75%.
Will the base rate fall in 2026?
Market forecasts as of June 2026 vary considerably. SONIA futures point to possible gradual easing, but the Bank of England has signalled that inflation risks could delay any cuts, with some scenarios pointing to a rise rather than a fall. The uncertainty is substantially greater than it was at the start of the year.
What is UK inflation in June 2026?
UK CPI inflation stood at 2.8% in May 2026, the most recent reading available at the time of the June MPC decision. This compares with a peak of 3.3% in March 2026 following the energy price shock.
