TL;DR
The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed to commercial shipping since 28 February 2026, with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports added from 13 April. Roughly 25% of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas pass through the strait in normal conditions. UK consumers see the cost mainly through three channels: petrol and diesel at the pump, the Ofgem energy price cap, and food and wider goods inflation. This guide explains how each channel works and where to track the live data.
Last reviewed: 2 June 2026
The Strait of Hormuz, a 39 kilometre wide choke point between Iran and Oman, has been largely closed to commercial shipping since 28 February 2026. Around 25% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas pass through it in normal conditions. For UK consumers, the impact does not arrive in one shock but feeds through three distinct channels at different speeds.
Key facts
- The strait normally carries about 25% of seaborne oil and 20% of LNG.
- Brent crude is the main UK pricing benchmark. UK pump prices typically lag Brent by 4 to 6 weeks.
- The Ofgem price cap is set quarterly and uses a wholesale gas reference window that ends roughly a month before each cap announcement.
- Roughly 80 to 90 pence of every petrol litre is fuel duty plus VAT before retailer margin.
- The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee tracks oil prices as an input to its inflation forecast.
Channel 1: petrol and diesel pump prices
UK pump prices are referenced to Brent crude, the global benchmark traded in dollars per barrel. Roughly 80 to 90 pence of every pump litre is made up of fuel duty (currently 52.95 pence per litre on petrol and diesel) plus VAT at 20% applied to the full pre tax price. The remainder is the wholesale cost of refined fuel plus retailer margin. A USD 10 sustained move in Brent typically passes through to around 7 pence per litre at the pump, with a 4 to 6 week lag because retailers hedge and run down existing stock. The RAC Fuel Watch and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero weekly road fuel price series both publish updated figures.
Channel 2: Ofgem energy price cap
The Ofgem default tariff cap is reset every three months for England, Wales and Scotland. The wholesale gas reference window for each cap announcement ends roughly one month before the cap level is published. This means a sustained spike in gas prices in May and June 2026 would feed into the cap announced in late August and applying from 1 October. UK gas wholesale prices are referenced to NBP (the National Balancing Point) and the Dutch TTF benchmark. The Hormuz closure feeds in indirectly through LNG: UK imports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar, the world's largest LNG exporter, route through the strait.
Channel 3: food and wider goods inflation
Diesel feeds into the cost of road haulage and farm machinery, which in turn lifts the cost of food and manufactured goods on shelves. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee uses oil prices as an input to its inflation forecast and to its decisions on Bank Rate. The Office for National Statistics CPI release each month splits headline inflation into categories that allow tracking of the fuel and food channels separately.
What to watch as a UK consumer or business
Three live data points carry the most signal. First, Brent crude front month price as quoted by ICE Brent or via the Energy Information Administration. Second, the RAC Fuel Watch weekly road fuel summary and the gov.uk weekly road fuel statistics. Third, Ofgem cap announcements and the NBP gas price as published by ICIS. For UK businesses with significant road haulage exposure, the Hormuz crisis is reason to revisit hedging policy with a treasury adviser. Households with the financial capacity may want to consider a fixed rate energy tariff if a credible deal becomes available below the current cap level, though fixed deals have been thin on the ground during the recent volatility.
Important
This article is general analysis of a fast moving geopolitical and commodity market situation. Prices and the official policy response can change daily. Households facing acute affordability stress on energy bills should contact their supplier and, if eligible, apply through the Household Support Fund administered by their local council.
Common questions
How much of UK oil and gas comes through the Strait of Hormuz?
The UK imports relatively little oil directly from the Gulf, but Brent crude is priced globally. A Hormuz closure raises the global benchmark and the UK pays the higher reference price. UK LNG imports include cargoes from Qatar that route through the strait.
How quickly does a Brent move show up at the pump?
There is typically a 4 to 6 week lag between a Brent move and the resulting pump price change. RAC Fuel Watch tracks this in near real time and publishes a fairness assessment.
Will the energy price cap rise as a result?
Possibly. The cap is set quarterly and reflects a backward looking wholesale gas reference window. A sustained gas price spike in May and June 2026 would feed into the cap announced in late August and applying from 1 October.
