TL;DR
ONS food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation eased to 3.0 per cent in the 12 months to April 2026 from 3.7 per cent in March. The BRC-NIQ shop price index showed food inflation at 3.4 per cent. The Food and Drink Federation has revised its year-end food inflation forecast upward to as high as 9 per cent.
Last reviewed 3 June 2026
Key facts
- ONS food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation: 3.0 per cent year-on-year in April 2026 (down from 3.7 per cent in March).
- BRC-NIQ Shop Price Index: food inflation at 3.4 per cent in March 2026, with shop price inflation overall at 1.2 per cent.
- Overall CPI: 2.8 per cent in April 2026, down from 3.3 per cent in March, helped by the Ofgem energy price cap reduction.
- FDF revised forecast: food inflation could reach 9 per cent by end-2026 if Middle East energy supply disruption continues.
- Iceland Foods CEO previously warned of price pass-through from the £7bn cost increase facing retailers after the autumn 2025 budget.
What the April data actually shows
The Office for National Statistics published April 2026 consumer prices inflation on 20 May 2026. The headline CPI rate eased to 2.8 per cent year-on-year, down from 3.3 per cent in March. The food and non-alcoholic beverages component fell to 3.0 per cent from 3.7 per cent the previous month.
The British Retail Consortium - NielsenIQ Shop Price Index, a parallel measure published monthly by retailers, recorded shop price inflation at 1.2 per cent in March 2026, with food alone at 3.4 per cent. Non-food prices have remained largely flat through the spring.
The April easing was driven principally by housing and household services costs, which fell from 5.3 per cent to 1.4 per cent year-on-year after Ofgem's default tariff cap stepped down on 1 April. Food inflation eased alongside that effect.
What supermarkets are saying
Iceland Foods chief executive Tarsem Dhaliwal has previously warned about the £7bn increase in costs UK retailers faced following the Chancellor's autumn 2025 budget, particularly the rise in employers' National Insurance contributions and the National Living Wage uplift. Morrisons CEO Rami Baitiéh and Sainsbury's CEO Simon Roberts have made similar statements and announced job reductions.
The Food and Drink Federation has revised its forecast for full-year 2026 food inflation. The previous forecast was around 3 per cent by year-end. The revised forecast, citing energy supply disruption from the Middle East conflict and the closure of parts of the Strait of Hormuz, models food inflation reaching as high as 9 per cent.
What this means for shopping budgets
Food inflation is not the same as the price of any single product. ONS measures a basket of around 700 representative items. Households whose actual shopping mix differs from the basket can see prices move very differently. Fresh food inflation has been more volatile than ambient (long-life) food this year.
Practical responses available to households include switching between supermarkets to capture promotional pricing (Kantar data shows discounters Aldi and Lidl have continued to grow share into 2026), buying ambient goods at promotional moments, and substituting between protein sources as relative prices shift.
Loyalty pricing schemes (Tesco Clubcard, Sainsbury's Nectar, Morrisons More) have come under Competition and Markets Authority scrutiny. The CMA's June 2024 report found loyalty prices generally offer genuine savings but require members to opt in.
Advisory: Inflation figures describe an average across the population. A household's actual food bill change depends on shopping mix, geography and retailer. Use ONS figures as a benchmark rather than a personal forecast.
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Disclaimer
This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial, legal, tax, insurance, or investment advice. Kael Tripton Ltd is registered with the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO ZC135439) as a data controller but is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Figures and rules are correct at time of publication and may change. Always check the primary source linked below before acting on any information, and seek advice from a qualified professional for your specific circumstances.
Sources
Frequently asked questions
What is UK food inflation right now?
ONS recorded food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation at 3.0 per cent in the 12 months to April 2026, down from 3.7 per cent in March.
Why did food inflation fall in April?
The April fall reflected several factors including base effects, easing wholesale prices for some commodities, and the broader effect of the Ofgem energy price cap reduction on retailer costs.
Will food prices rise again in 2026?
The Food and Drink Federation has revised its year-end forecast upward to as high as 9 per cent, citing energy supply disruption. Other forecasters are more cautious. ONS monthly data will show the actual trajectory.
Are supermarket loyalty card prices a genuine saving?
The Competition and Markets Authority published a report in June 2024 finding loyalty prices generally offer genuine savings against non-member prices, but the saving requires the customer to opt into the scheme and the headline non-member price may itself be elevated.
