| TL;DR: Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow oil refineries and fuel infrastructure in June 2026 have added uncertainty to global oil prices. UK petrol and diesel pump prices are influenced by the wholesale price of crude oil, the sterling-dollar exchange rate, and fuel duty plus VAT. Fuel duty has been held at 52.95p per litre since March 2022. Any sustained rise in crude prices following the attacks could put upward pressure on UK pump prices, though the immediate impact has been limited. |
Last reviewed: 19 June 2026
Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure renew focus on UK pump prices and the factors that drive petrol and diesel costs.
Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow oil infrastructure
Ukraine conducted drone attacks on oil refinery and fuel infrastructure sites in and around Moscow in June 2026, according to reports published on 18 June 2026. The attacks targeted energy production and storage sites and are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to disrupt Russian energy capacity. Russia is a significant global oil producer and any sustained disruption to Russian refining capacity can affect global crude supply and pricing.
Oil markets reacted to news of the attacks, though the immediate price movement was contained as global stockpile levels and OPEC production policy remained relevant counterweights.
How UK fuel prices are set
UK petrol and diesel pump prices are made up of several components. The largest single element is fuel duty, set at 52.95 pence per litre and frozen at this level since March 2022. VAT at 20% is then applied to the combined cost of the wholesale fuel price plus the duty. Retailer margins and distribution costs make up the remainder.
Wholesale fuel costs follow the global crude oil price, which is denominated in US dollars. A weaker pound against the dollar pushes up the sterling cost of crude even if the dollar price holds steady. Both factors are relevant to UK pump prices at any given time.
Current UK pump prices
The RAC and AA publish regular UK pump price data. UK petrol prices have trended lower in the first half of 2026 compared with the highs reached during the early-year energy shock, but remain above pre-2022 levels in real terms. Any sustained rise in crude oil prices resulting from conflict-related supply disruption would be expected to feed through to pump prices over a period of weeks.
The Competition and Markets Authority has previously examined the speed at which UK retailers pass on wholesale price falls versus rises. Its 2023 road fuels review found an asymmetry in pass-through, with rises being passed on faster than falls. The CMA has continued to monitor the sector.
HMRC fuel rates and advisory rates
Separately from pump prices, HMRC publishes advisory fuel rates for company car users and the official fuel rates for the government's mileage allowance payment scheme. These are updated quarterly. The current advisory rates are available on gov.uk. For private mileage reimbursement, the HMRC mileage allowance relief rates for the 2026/27 tax year stand at 45p per mile for the first 10,000 miles and 25p per mile thereafter for cars and vans.
Frequently asked questions
Will Ukraine drone attacks push up UK petrol prices?
Any sustained disruption to Russian oil production and refining capacity could add upward pressure to global crude prices, which would eventually feed through to UK pump prices. The extent depends on how much Russian capacity is affected, how long disruption lasts, and how other producers respond.
What is UK fuel duty in 2026?
Fuel duty is charged at 52.95 pence per litre on petrol and diesel and has been held at this level since March 2022. It is set by HMRC and is separate from VAT, which is charged at 20% on top of the combined wholesale cost and duty.
Where can I find current UK petrol prices?
The RAC and AA both publish updated UK average fuel prices online. The government's Find My Nearest Fuel Prices service at gov.uk provides local forecourt price data.
