UK GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.6% in Q1 2026: What the ONS Data Shows

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed on 30 June 2026 that UK gross domestic product grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026, matching both the earlier provisional estimate and economists' forecasts. It marks the strongest quarterly expansion since the first quarter of 2025.

What drove the growth

All three main output sectors contributed positively. Services output, which accounts for over 80 percent of UK GDP, grew 0.8 percent, led by wholesale and retail trade, which rose 2.0 percent combined. Production output increased 0.2 percent, supported by manufacturing growth, while construction returned to growth at 0.4 percent after repair and maintenance work rose 3.4 percent, partly offset by a fall in new construction work.

On an annual basis, GDP was up 0.9 percent compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Growth in the final quarter of 2025 was revised down to 0.1 percent from the previous estimate.

Why household finances tell a different story

Real household disposable income per head fell 0.8 percent in the first quarter, reversing a 1.2 percent rise in the previous quarter. The household savings ratio fell 0.7 percentage points to 8.9 percent, driven by a decline in non-pension saving, meaning households put aside relatively less even as the wider economy expanded.

Why this data is already being described as dated

The first quarter of 2026 ran from January to March, before the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted oil and gas supply through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed UK inflation up sharply. CPI inflation subsequently peaked at 3.3 percent in March 2026. The Bank of England has held its base rate at 3.75 percent across its March, April and June 2026 meetings, balancing slower growth against above-target inflation. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 UK growth forecast from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent in April, before revising it slightly higher to 1.0 percent in May.

What this means for households

The headline growth figure reflects economic activity from before the most recent inflationary pressure took hold, so it does not capture the squeeze many households are currently experiencing on energy and fuel costs. The fall in real household disposable income per head is a more direct measure of living standards, and that fell even as headline GDP rose.

Frequently asked questions

How much did the UK economy grow in Q1 2026?

The ONS confirmed UK GDP grew 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026, matching the earlier provisional estimate.

Is 0.6 percent growth good for the UK economy?

It is the strongest quarterly growth since Q1 2025 and ahead of the revised 0.1 percent recorded in the previous quarter, though it reflects conditions before the more recent inflationary pressure linked to the Middle East conflict.

Why did household disposable income fall if GDP grew?

GDP measures total economic output, while real household disposable income per head measures what households actually have available after tax and inflation. The ONS recorded a 0.8 percent fall in the latter even as GDP rose, partly due to higher tax payments and a smaller rise in nominal income relative to inflation.

When is the next GDP release?

The ONS publishes a monthly GDP estimate, with the next quarterly release covering April to June 2026 expected later in 2026.