UK Home Sales Jumped 17% Annually in May 2026: What the HMRC Figures Actually Show

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) published its monthly property transactions release on 30 June 2026, showing the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in May 2026 at 98,450, an increase of 17 percent compared with May 2025 and a fall of 2 percent compared with April 2026. The non-seasonally adjusted estimate was 92,390, up 13 percent on May 2025 and up 7 percent on April 2026.

Why the annual comparison looks stronger than it is

HMRC's own commentary attributes the year-on-year increase to lower transaction levels in April and May 2025, when activity fell following changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds that took effect from 1 April 2025. Buyers brought transactions forward into March 2025 to beat the deadline, which depressed completions in the following months and makes this year's comparison against an artificially weak base. Industry economists have echoed this, cautioning that the headline 17 percent figure overstates the underlying strength of the market.

The month-on-month picture is softer

Seasonally adjusted transactions fell 2 percent between April and May 2026, continuing a pattern of monthly declines through the spring. Non-residential transactions told a similar story: the seasonally adjusted estimate was 10,080 in May, marginally lower than May 2025 and only marginally higher than April 2026, while the non-seasonally adjusted figure fell 4 percent year-on-year and 5 percent month-on-month.

Why other property data sources show a different picture

Some property industry trackers have reported UK home sales falling in year-on-year terms over the same period, which can look contradictory at first glance. The explanation is methodology, not a factual conflict: HMRC's figures measure legally completed transactions, which on average lag two to four months behind an initial offer being accepted. Trackers based on sales agreed, listings, or estate agency pipeline data capture an earlier stage of the buying process and can move in a different direction in the short term, particularly when the market is decelerating, since completions reported now reflect offers accepted months ago, before the more recent slowdown linked to the Iran conflict and higher mortgage rates fed through.

What this means looking ahead

Economists who track the data have pointed to mortgage rates and Bank of England money and credit data, not the transaction count itself, as the more useful indicator of near-term direction, since completions reported today reflect buying decisions made several months ago. The next HMRC release, covering June 2026 completions, is due on 30 July 2026.

Frequently asked questions

How much does a property go up in value each year?

Long-run UK house price growth typically runs in the low single digits annually. For 2026 specifically, growth has slowed sharply: Nationwide recorded annual growth of 1.7 percent in May, down from 3 percent in April, and some major lenders have revised their full-year forecasts down toward 1 percent or a small decline, citing higher mortgage rates linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

How much will house prices increase in the next 5 years?

Major forecasters including Savills and Knight Frank expect cumulative UK growth of roughly 15 to 20 percent between 2025 and 2029 or 2030, averaging around 3 to 4 percent a year, with the North, Scotland and Wales generally expected to outperform London.

Are house prices falling in 2026?

The picture is mixed rather than uniform. Annual growth has slowed across most indices and at least one major forecaster has revised its full-year prediction to a small decline, while others still expect modest growth of 1 to 3 percent for the year. There is no consensus on an outright nationwide fall.

What percentage of house sales fall through in the UK?

Industry tracking data has put the fall-through rate at roughly 23 to 24 percent of agreed sales in early 2026, though this has improved slightly year-on-year. The government announced a homebuying reform package on 19 June 2026 intended to roughly halve the fall-through rate through earlier binding agreements and upfront digital sales packs.