TL;DR
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 (voted 6-3; three members wanted a rise to 4.00%). UK CPI inflation is 3.1% (ONS, August 2026), above the 2% target, and the Bank expects it to reach about 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1 as energy costs feed through. A rise to 4.00% in H2 2026 is possible; rate cuts are not expected until inflation returns sustainably toward 2%. The next MPC decision is 5 November 2026.
Last reviewed: 14 October 2026
Key Facts
|
Current Bank of England base rate
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its meeting ending 16 September 2026, announced on 17 September 2026. The vote was 6-3: six members voted to hold, three members voted to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. This follows a series of cuts from the 5.25% peak reached in August 2023. The BoE cut rates progressively through 2024 and into 2025, reaching 3.75% in December 2025, but the cutting cycle paused due to persistent above-target inflation. Source: Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk).
Why the BoE is holding
Two competing forces are shaping BoE policy in mid-2026. On one side, inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.1% CPI (ONS August 2026). The BoE expects CPI to rise to about 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1 as higher energy prices continue to feed through. The US-Israel operation against Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting approximately 20% of global oil trade. Although prices have partially recovered, they remain above pre-conflict levels. Second-round effects, where higher energy costs push up wages and business prices, are a key concern for the three MPC members who voted for 4.00%. On the other side, weaker growth and a looser labour market are the main arguments for holding or cutting. Source: Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary, September 2026; ONS CPI, August 2026.
Base rate history
| Date | Base rate | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | 5.25% | Peak |
| August 2024 | 5.00% | First cut |
| December 2024 | 4.75% | Cut |
| February 2025 | 4.50% | Cut |
| May 2025 | 4.25% | Cut |
| August 2025 | 4.00% | Cut |
| December 2025 | 3.75% | Cut |
| June 2026 | 3.75% | Hold (7-2) |
| July 2026 | 3.75% | Hold (6-3) |
| September 2026 | 3.75% | Hold (6-3), current |
Rate forecast: key scenarios
Rise to 4.00% in H2 2026: If UK CPI rises materially above the Bank's projection of about 3.75% in Q4 2026 due to energy costs or wage pressure, the MPC could raise at the 5 November or 17 December 2026 meeting. Three members voted for this outcome in both July and September 2026. A 25 basis point rise would add approximately GBP15 to 25 per month to a tracker mortgage with GBP200,000 outstanding and push new two-year fixed rates toward 5.0-5.5%.
Hold at 3.75% through end of 2026: If CPI falls more quickly than expected and the labour market remains soft, the MPC could hold for the remainder of 2026, potentially beginning cuts in H1 2027. The Bank of England does not publish a forecast for Bank Rate itself.
Cuts resume H1 2027: If inflation falls sustainably toward 2% by Q1 2027, the committee could restart cutting with a move to 3.50% or lower. Under this scenario, two-year fixed rate mortgages could move toward 3.8-4.2% by mid-2027.
What current rates mean for savers
With Bank Rate at 3.75%, variable savings rates tend to move when Bank Rate moves, while fixed-rate bonds keep their rate until the term ends. A rise to 4.00% would tend to lift variable savings rates, and a return to cuts in 2027 would tend to lower them. Rates differ by provider, and each provider publishes its own current rate.
What current rates mean for mortgage borrowers
Tracker mortgages move directly with the base rate. At 3.75%, tracker deals typically run at 4.75-5.75% (base plus 1-2% margin). Two-year fixed rates are approximately 4.5-5.0% with major lenders; five-year fixes are slightly lower in some cases as markets price eventual cuts over a longer horizon. Standard variable rates (SVR) run at approximately 7-8% across major lenders. Borrowers coming off fixed rate deals from 2020-2021 face significantly higher monthly payments on remortgage.
Disclaimer: Interest rate forecasts are inherently uncertain. The Bank of England makes decisions based on economic conditions at the time of each meeting. This page is educational only. Kaeltripton Ltd is not FCA-authorised. For savings or mortgage decisions, consult an FCA-authorised adviser.
What is the Bank of England base rate in October 2026?
3.75%, held at the September 2026 MPC meeting (voted 6-3, announced 17 September 2026). The next decision is 5 November 2026. Source: Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary September 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk).
Will UK interest rates go up or down in 2026?
Uncertain. Three MPC members voted for a rise to 4.00% in September 2026 due to energy-driven inflation. In the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the market-implied path for Bank Rate rose to around 4.2% by the second half of 2027. If inflation falls back toward target, cuts could resume in 2027.
When is the next Bank of England interest rate decision?
5 November 2026, followed by 17 December 2026. The 2027 decisions are on 4 February, 18 March, 29 April, 17 June, 29 July, 16 September, 4 November and 16 December.
How does the base rate affect my savings account?
Variable rate savings accounts typically move with the base rate. Fixed rate savings bonds are unaffected until the term expires. Rates differ by provider and change often, and each provider publishes its own current rate.
Sources
Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes September 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk); Bank of England MPC dates 2026 and 2027 (bankofengland.co.uk); ONS Consumer Price Inflation August 2026 (ons.gov.uk); OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2025 (obr.uk).
Bank Rate and inflation: key figures (checked 24 September 2026)
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Bank Rate | 3.75%, held on 17 September 2026 |
| MPC vote | 6 to 3; three members voted to raise Bank Rate to 4% |
| Held since | December 2025, the sixth hold in a row |
| CPI inflation | 3.1% in August 2026 (target 2%) |
| Bank of England inflation outlook | Slightly above 4% expected in 2027 Q1 |
| Next decision | 5 November 2026, with the Monetary Policy Report |
Sources: Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary, September 2026 · House of Commons Library, interest rates and monetary policy
Update, 14 October 2026: Bank Rate held at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, with Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill voting for a rise to 4%, according to the Bank. UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, according to ONS figures published on 16 September 2026. September's figure is due on 21 October 2026. The Bank expects CPI inflation to reach about 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1. The next Bank Rate decisions are on 5 November 2026, with a Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December 2026. The 2027 decision dates are 4 February, 18 March, 29 April, 17 June, 29 July, 16 September, 4 November and 16 December, with Monetary Policy Reports in February, April, July and November. |
