Bank of England Decision on 17 September: Hold at 3.75% Expected, Rise to 4% Possible, What It Means for Your Mortgage and Savings

What is being decided on 17 September

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its next decision at 12:00 on Thursday 17 September 2026. Bank Rate is 3.75%, unchanged since a cut from 4% on 18 December 2025. The decision follows a run of data that has shifted market expectations. Inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026, above the 2% target, driven by higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The Bank has said it expects inflation around 3.2% later in 2026. Before the conflict, markets expected two cuts in 2026. They now consider rises possible, with market pricing implying Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling. Some forecasters expect cuts to resume in 2027.

A survey cited by HomeOwners Alliance found 56 of 64 economists expect rates to be left unchanged for the rest of 2026. Forecasts for end-2026 range from 3.5% to 4%. The vote split on 17 September will be published alongside the decision. The remaining 2026 decision dates are 5 November, with a Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December. This page will be updated on 17 September with the outcome and vote split.

Why a rise is possible: the July vote and inflation

On 30 July 2026 the MPC voted 6-3 to hold, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voting for a rise to 4%, up from two dissenters at the previous meeting. Analysts called it a hawkish hold. Governor Andrew Bailey did not signal an imminent rise. The three dissenting votes show that a rise is on the table, even though a majority favoured holding. Inflation at 2.9% in July 2026 is above target, and the Bank expects it around 3.2% later in 2026. Higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict are a key driver. That combination has led markets to price a possible rise rather than a cut in the coming months.

Market pricing implies Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling. Some forecasters expect cuts to resume in 2027. The survey cited by HomeOwners Alliance found 56 of 64 economists expect rates to be left unchanged for the rest of 2026, with end-2026 forecasts ranging from 3.5% to 4%. The range shows the uncertainty. A hold on 17 September would leave Bank Rate at 3.75%, but the vote split and the minutes will indicate how close the committee is to a rise.

What today's growth figures change

Today's ONS data showed GDP grew 0.4% in July against forecasts of zero, and 1.6% year on year. That reduces the pressure on the Bank to cut quickly. Stronger growth can support higher rates because it suggests the economy is less in need of stimulus. For borrowers hoping for a cut, the data is a signal that a near-term reduction is less likely. For savers, it supports the case for rates staying higher for longer. The growth figure does not by itself force a rise, but it removes an argument for an immediate cut.

The Bank's decision on 17 September will weigh this growth data against inflation at 2.9% and the expected rise to around 3.2% later in 2026. The July vote already showed three members favouring a rise to 4%. With growth beating forecasts, the case for holding at 3.75% rests on the view that inflation will fall back without further tightening. The case for a rise rests on inflation staying above target and growth holding up. The vote split will show which view has more support.

Fixed-rate mortgages: why the decision matters less than the minutes

Fixed-rate deals are priced from swap rates, which reflect expected future Bank Rate. That means fixed rates can move even when Bank Rate is held. Lenders repriced fixes higher in July and lower in August with no change in Bank Rate. Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.63% and five-year at 5.66% at the start of August 2026. For anyone whose fixed deal ends within a year, the rate on a new fix depends more on market expectations than on the 17 September decision itself. If the minutes and vote split suggest a rise is more likely, swap rates could rise and fixed rates could follow.

Borrowers whose deal ends within six months can usually lock a new rate with their lender or a broker and switch if a cheaper one appears before completion. That option gives some protection against rates moving higher before completion. Overpaying while rates are high reduces interest. The average two-year fix at 5.63% and five-year fix at 5.66% at the start of August 2026 compare with a standard variable rate average of 7.13% in September 2026. For those coming off a fix, the gap between a new fix and an SVR is wide.

Tracker and standard variable rate borrowers

Tracker mortgages move with Bank Rate. If Bank Rate is held at 3.75% on 17 September, tracker payments stay the same. If Bank Rate rises to 4%, tracker payments increase. The average standard variable rate is 7.13% in September 2026 and varies widely by lender. Newcastle Building Society's SVR is 6.31%, while Aldermore's is 8.38%. Anyone on an SVR is typically paying far more than fixed or tracker alternatives. SVR borrowers do not automatically benefit from a hold, because their rate is set by the lender and can change independently of Bank Rate.

For tracker borrowers, the 17 September decision and the vote split matter directly. A hold keeps payments unchanged. A rise would increase them. The market pricing implies Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling, so tracker borrowers may face higher payments if that pricing proves correct. The survey cited by HomeOwners Alliance found 56 of 64 economists expect rates to be left unchanged for the rest of 2026, which would mean no change for tracker borrowers this year. The range of end-2026 forecasts, from 3.5% to 4%, shows the uncertainty.

Savers: easy-access, fixed bonds and ISAs

Easy-access and variable savings rates tend to move with Bank Rate. If Bank Rate is held at 3.75%, those rates are likely to stay broadly unchanged, though providers can adjust them at any time. Fixed-rate bonds and fixed ISAs are priced off the same market expectations as mortgages, so their rates can change before the decision. If markets price a higher Bank Rate, fixed savings rates can rise before the MPC meets. If markets price a cut, fixed savings rates can fall. That means savers looking to lock in a rate may see changes before 17 September.

The Personal Savings Allowance is £1,000 for basic-rate and £500 for higher-rate taxpayers. ISA interest is tax free. For savers with larger balances, the tax treatment can matter as much as the headline rate. Easy-access rates tend to follow Bank Rate, while fixed bonds and fixed ISAs follow market expectations. With market pricing implying Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling, fixed savings rates may already reflect some of that expectation. The 17 September decision and the vote split will give a clearer signal of what comes next.

What to do before Thursday

Borrowers whose deal ends within six months can usually lock a new rate with their lender or a broker and switch if a cheaper one appears before completion. That option is available before 17 September and does not depend on the outcome. Overpaying while rates are high reduces interest. Anyone on an SVR is typically paying far more than fixed or tracker alternatives, and the average SVR is 7.13% in September 2026. Checking the rate on an SVR against current fixed and tracker options is a practical step. The decision itself may not change fixed rates immediately, because they are priced from swap rates that reflect expectations.

Savers can review whether easy-access, fixed bonds or fixed ISAs suit their needs. Easy-access and variable rates tend to move with Bank Rate. Fixed-rate bonds and fixed ISAs are priced off market expectations and can change before the decision. The Personal Savings Allowance is £1,000 for basic-rate and £500 for higher-rate taxpayers, and ISA interest is tax free. The 17 September decision will be published at 12:00, with the vote split. This page will be updated with the outcome and vote split.

The rest of the 2026 calendar

The remaining 2026 decision dates are 5 November, with a Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December. The 5 November meeting includes the Bank's latest forecasts, which will set out its view on inflation and growth. The 17 December meeting is the final decision of the year. Market pricing implies Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling. Some forecasters expect cuts to resume in 2027. The survey cited by HomeOwners Alliance found 56 of 64 economists expect rates to be left unchanged for the rest of 2026, with end-2026 forecasts ranging from 3.5% to 4%.

For mortgage holders and savers, the 5 November Monetary Policy Report may matter as much as the September decision, because it will include the Bank's latest projections. The 17 December decision will be the last chance for a change in 2026. The 17 September decision will be announced at 12:00, and this page will be updated with the outcome and vote split. The vote split will show how many members favoured a hold, a cut or a rise, which will indicate the direction of policy into November and December.

Related coverage on Kael Tripton: What Are Swap Rates? How They Affect UK Mortgage Rates Explained, Tracker Mortgage UK 2026: How They Work, Rates and When to Choose One, What Is A Tracker Mortgage, UK Building Societies: How They Differ from Banks and Best Savings Rates, Hargreaves Lansdown Active Savings Rates 2026 Review.

Frequently asked questions

What is Bank Rate now and when is the next decision?

Bank Rate is 3.75%, unchanged since a cut from 4% on 18 December 2025. The next decision is at 12:00 on Thursday 17 September 2026. The MPC voted 6-3 to hold on 30 July 2026, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voting for a rise to 4%. Analysts called it a hawkish hold. Governor Andrew Bailey did not signal an imminent rise. The vote split on 17 September will be published with the decision.

Why might the Bank of England raise rates to 4%?

Inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026, above the 2% target, driven by higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The Bank has said it expects inflation around 3.2% later in 2026. On 30 July 2026 three MPC members voted for a rise to 4%, up from two dissenters at the previous meeting. Market pricing implies Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling. Some forecasters expect cuts to resume in 2027.

Will fixed mortgage rates change on 17 September?

Fixed-rate deals are priced from swap rates, which reflect expected future Bank Rate, so fixed rates can move even when Bank Rate is held. Lenders repriced fixes higher in July and lower in August with no change in Bank Rate. Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.63% and five-year at 5.66% at the start of August 2026. The vote split and minutes may influence swap rates more than the decision itself.

What does the decision mean for tracker and SVR borrowers?

Tracker mortgages move with Bank Rate. A hold at 3.75% keeps tracker payments unchanged, while a rise to 4% would increase them. The average standard variable rate is 7.13% in September 2026 and varies widely by lender, from Newcastle Building Society at 6.31% to Aldermore at 8.38%. Anyone on an SVR is typically paying far more than fixed or tracker alternatives. SVR rates are set by lenders and can change independently of Bank Rate.

How does the decision affect savers?

Easy-access and variable savings rates tend to move with Bank Rate. Fixed-rate bonds and fixed ISAs are priced off the same market expectations as mortgages, so their rates can change before the decision. The Personal Savings Allowance is £1,000 for basic-rate and £500 for higher-rate taxpayers, and ISA interest is tax free. Market pricing implies Bank Rate around 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before falling, which may already be reflected in fixed savings rates.