UK inflation rises to 3.1 percent as fuel and airfares climb

The headline numbers

Source: ONS, 16 September 2026.

Consumer price inflation rose to 3.1 percent in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9 percent in July, according to the ONS consumer price inflation release published on 16 September 2026. That is the highest annual CPI rate since March 2026, when it stood at 3.3 percent, and it marks a five month high. The all items CPI index stood at 143.6 on a 2015 equals 100 basis. On the month, CPI rose 0.5 percent in August 2026, compared with 0.3 percent in August 2025, so the monthly pace was faster than a year earlier as well as the annual rate being higher.

The wider measures moved in the same direction. CPIH, which includes owner occupiers housing costs, rose to 3.3 percent in the 12 months to August 2026 from 3.1 percent in July. RPI rose to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.6 percent, unchanged from June and July, so the acceleration in the headline rate came from the categories that core inflation strips out. The gap between the headline rate and core inflation is therefore wider than it was in July, and the drivers sit in energy, transport and housing rather than in the broad domestic price base.

What pushed it up

Transport was the largest single upward contributor to the change in the annual rate, rising to 4.6 percent in August from 3.6 percent in July. Petrol and diesel prices fed into that after the Middle East oil price rise, and airfares also contributed. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero weekly road fuel prices for the week commencing 14 September 2026 put petrol at 168.14p a litre and diesel at 190.72p a litre. Housing, water and fuels rose to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent, and within that electricity, gas and other fuels rose to 6.0 percent from 5.0 percent. Gas was 8.6 percent, up from 8.0 percent, electricity was 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent, and liquid fuels such as heating oil rose 64.6 percent, up from 42.8 percent in July.

Other divisions added to the picture. Communication rose to 5.3 percent from 5.0 percent. Personal care rose to 3.1 percent from 2.0 percent. Alcohol and tobacco rose to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent, with tobacco at 6.7 percent from 6.5 percent. Catering rose to 4.4 percent from 4.2 percent, and hotels, cafes and restaurants rose to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent. Miscellaneous goods and services rose to 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent, and recreation and culture rose to 1.6 percent from 1.4 percent. Education was unchanged at 5.1 percent and health was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Actual rents rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent.

What did not

Several categories held steady or fell, which limited the scale of the headline increase. Food and non alcoholic beverages were unchanged at 1.3 percent, with food alone at 1.1 percent, down from 1.2 percent. Clothing and footwear was 0.2 percent, down from 0.5 percent, and footwear fell 1.9 percent. Furniture and household goods was 0.8 percent, down from 1.0 percent. The purchase of vehicles fell 1.3 percent, steeper than the 0.9 percent fall in July, and transport services fell 1.5 percent, the same rate as in July. Insurance eased to 4.3 percent from 5.6 percent, and package holidays were 0.2 percent, down from 0.5 percent.

Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.6 percent for a third consecutive month, having also been 2.6 percent in June and July. That stability matters for how the August figures read. The headline rate rose because of energy, fuel and transport costs, while the measure that strips those out did not move. Food inflation at 1.3 percent is well below the headline rate, and clothing, furniture and vehicle prices are flat or falling on an annual basis. The picture is therefore one of an energy and transport led rise rather than a broad based acceleration across goods and services.

What it means

Bank Rate is 3.75 percent and the Monetary Policy Committee decision is due on 17 September 2026, the day after the inflation release. A five month high in CPI driven by energy and transport weakens the case for a cut at that meeting, because the headline rate is moving away from target rather than towards it. Core inflation at 2.6 percent for a third month gives the committee a counter argument, since it suggests the underlying domestic pressure is not building. The decision rests on how the committee weighs an energy led headline rise against a stable core measure, with the August figures arriving only one day before the vote.

For the state pension triple lock, the earnings figure used is the total pay growth of 3.9 percent for May to July, published in the ONS labour market data of 15 September 2026. That currently exceeds CPI. However, the CPI figure that enters the triple lock comparison is September's, which is published on 21 October 2026, not the August figure released today. The August rate of 3.1 percent is therefore not the number that counts for the uprating calculation. Ofgem's energy price cap rises from 1 October 2026, which will feed into October's inflation figures, and the next ONS consumer price inflation release is on 21 October 2026.

Source: ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026.

Related coverage on Kael Tripton: What Is Inflation?, Is My Pay Keeping Up With Inflation? UK Real Wages Explained, UK Inflation Statistics: CPI, CPIH and RPI Data, UK Inflation Explained: How CPI Is Measured and What It Means for Your Money, What Is the Bank of England Bank Rate?.

Frequently asked questions

What was the UK inflation rate in August 2026?

CPI inflation was 3.1 percent in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9 percent in July, according to the ONS consumer price inflation release published on 16 September 2026. It was the highest annual rate since March 2026, when CPI was 3.3 percent.

What drove the rise in inflation?

Transport rose to 4.6 percent from 3.6 percent, housing, water and fuels rose to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent, and electricity, gas and other fuels rose to 6.0 percent from 5.0 percent. Within energy, gas was 8.6 percent, electricity 2.5 percent and liquid fuels such as heating oil 64.6 percent.

Did core inflation rise?

No. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.6 percent, unchanged from June and July. Food and non alcoholic beverages were also unchanged at 1.3 percent.

What does this mean for Bank Rate?

Bank Rate is 3.75 percent and the Monetary Policy Committee decision is due on 17 September 2026. A five month high in CPI driven by energy and transport weakens the case for a cut, while core inflation at 2.6 percent for a third month points the other way.

Which inflation figure is used for the state pension triple lock?

The CPI figure used in the triple lock is September's, published on 21 October 2026, not the August figure. The earnings figure used is total pay growth of 3.9 percent for May to July, published on 15 September 2026, which currently exceeds CPI.